Indonesia Suspends Trading Indefinitely
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Markit , the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale , interested ? :wink: My point is that greed is universal the world over . The Fed in the USA seemed to be doing a good thing , getting lower income and credit challanged people into homes . Yes , Wall Street came up with these crazy schemes based on loans that some likely would go bad . Wall st. didnt shove them down anyones throats , the greed in all the institutional investors the world over goobled them up like holiday supper , never caring to look into what this vehicles were based on . Whos fault is that ? The USA didnt invent greed , only prefected it !
Maybe it's just me but I'm beginning to get the feeling that "the big picture" is a little diffent than we are being led to understand:
First comes the sub-crime which whacks out all the banks, then we have the stock markets falling all over the world. Today's newest disaster seems to be on the currency markets. Hmmm?
Now I'm getting this vision of a cloud of locusts that keep descending on our various forms of financing, savings and investment. I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories because I don't really think more than 2 people can work together without most of the neighborhood knowing what they are doing, so the locust problem must be institutional.
First the locusts (traders) in their search for ever higher profits descended on the money markets and hedge funds (they are also broke, by the way) then they sold all the banks short. Once short selling was forbidden they then moved on to selling the world's currencies down the Swanee. With those all in sharp decline (except Japan and, believe it or not, the US dollar - go figure) the locust are betting on the default of countries now. Look for Iceland, Hungary, Argentina and/or South Korea to sink into that good night in the near future.
Once that's over we are through the worst and can start playing with our children/grand children again (insofar as they haven't been sold into bondage :twisted: ).
Whoa, not quite yet friend, just when you thought it was safe to come out of that bunker there came limping along the road the bad uncle of Credit Default Swaps. Depending upon whom you believe they are the finance market's equivalent of an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) set to go off to the tune of between 6 and 60 trillion dollars in a financial market near you.
Hold on to your hats - if you still own one
First comes the sub-crime which whacks out all the banks, then we have the stock markets falling all over the world. Today's newest disaster seems to be on the currency markets. Hmmm?
Now I'm getting this vision of a cloud of locusts that keep descending on our various forms of financing, savings and investment. I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories because I don't really think more than 2 people can work together without most of the neighborhood knowing what they are doing, so the locust problem must be institutional.
First the locusts (traders) in their search for ever higher profits descended on the money markets and hedge funds (they are also broke, by the way) then they sold all the banks short. Once short selling was forbidden they then moved on to selling the world's currencies down the Swanee. With those all in sharp decline (except Japan and, believe it or not, the US dollar - go figure) the locust are betting on the default of countries now. Look for Iceland, Hungary, Argentina and/or South Korea to sink into that good night in the near future.
Once that's over we are through the worst and can start playing with our children/grand children again (insofar as they haven't been sold into bondage :twisted: ).
Whoa, not quite yet friend, just when you thought it was safe to come out of that bunker there came limping along the road the bad uncle of Credit Default Swaps. Depending upon whom you believe they are the finance market's equivalent of an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) set to go off to the tune of between 6 and 60 trillion dollars in a financial market near you.
Hold on to your hats - if you still own one
Only because it is linked to the dollar. IMO there is no sound financial reason why it has done so. I cannot understand why the dollar is so strong but it certainly affects my buying power in Indonesia as my currency has slipped 20% vis a vis the dollar and the Rupiah which puts all my retirement plans in Jeopardy
Jimbo said:
Jimbo all things come to those that wait - the IDR is headed for a big fall too.
Up until now the ID government has been doing everything to support the rupiah - but says it aint :lol:
Once it runs out of dollars to spend on propping up the currency or needs the money somewhere else (support lower petrol prices?) you will see some major fireworks.
Everybody's watching where the IMF goes next - I'd bet on South Korea or the Philippines, only a stones throw away. The only consolation in the whole thing is that for poor people living at subsistence level this has almost no effect
ID markets have broken away just like everybody elses in Asia so it won't be long until the dreaded "R" word will be making the rounds there too.
In one way I hope you are right but for my extended family there it will have a very adverse affect on them. Looks like there is always someone who is worse off.
1. risk aversion - when US investors pull their money from global markets, they buy back USD; funnily, non-US investors also see US treasuries as a safe haven and move their funds there
2. the fact that it had been pummeled beyond the fundamentals in the last 12 months and many other currencies were overvalued significantly against it
3. the realization that many european economies are is as bad a shape, if not worse than the US
the australian central bank bought up AUD on friday to support the falling AUD..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27393073
markets sure are irrational in every sense, on the upside and the downside.. a recession means the economy shrinks for 2 consecutive quarters by measure of gdp.. in most cases it's 1-2% shrinkage, and in the some more serious downturns, 3-4% - yet global equity markets have plunged 40% - ever fearful of hearing the R word - and one might argue that at only 15 times earnings, it's not as if equity markets in the developed world were overpriced last october.. that's why, even if it kills me, i'll always be a fundamentalist - trying to guess what happens next is just gambling.. for currency i look at PPP (not that i trade fx, but if looking to see whether i want exposure to a certain currency) and equities all the standard valuation ratios.. if i believe they're a fundamentally good company, i don't sell, no matter how low it goes - price and value are different, and the dropping in price of a share doesn't always correlate with it's 'intrinsic value'.. of course, there's a poiint where you want to strangle yourself with a shoelace because you could have bought it a lot cheaper than what you did, but at that point, if i still like it as much as i did when i bought it, i'll buy some more.. i'm not a believer in the efficient market theory - if there's anything people should be able to observe at this point in time, it is that markets are pretty dammed inefficient, which can be both good and bad..
ct
Negativity is a fact as my pension is down 25%, my cash assets vis a vis the dollar are down 25%, my house value down 25% and no sign in site of any upturn. It makes it hard to be optomistic.
I am not looking forward to having to continue working
I am not looking forward to having to continue working
Hey Jimbo it's easy to be optimistic when you still have 75% of a pension, house and cash.
It's that damned arm growing out of your ear I'd be worried about.
The rupiah fell 11% today and is expected to go to 15000 to the dollar in 6 months. Since the same pundits also said the rupiah would hit 10000 by the end of the year, I would expect the 15000 sometime next week :?
It's that damned arm growing out of your ear I'd be worried about.
The rupiah fell 11% today and is expected to go to 15000 to the dollar in 6 months. Since the same pundits also said the rupiah would hit 10000 by the end of the year, I would expect the 15000 sometime next week :?
That's a bummer Jimbo but I hope you wont let it stop your plans to retire.
I know as you have said you have responsibilities to your family and I understand that but on the otherhand I am sure they would rather have some time with you now than see you work on for years and never get that time to spend with you.
I would give anything for a few more years with my mum, rather than a few more pounds!
I know as you have said you have responsibilities to your family and I understand that but on the otherhand I am sure they would rather have some time with you now than see you work on for years and never get that time to spend with you.
I would give anything for a few more years with my mum, rather than a few more pounds!
Thank you Ladies and I understand your sentiments. My own mother and father died when I was 21 and 23 and I was left with my younger sister to bring up on my own. I missed them so much over the years but I never had them to rely on so it is hard just to walk away from my children.
All my life I have had responsibility for someone. This ofcourse is partly my own fault as with 6 children it is not easy. It still does not take away those responsibilities that I still have but I will ease off from next year.
As for seeing more of the children If Maria and I move to Bali I will see as much of them as I do now but Maria much less so I just need to find the right balance.
It will happen but might take an extra year....still who knows the situation is very flexible and the markets and currencies may bounce back or the cost of living go down. I live in hope
All my life I have had responsibility for someone. This ofcourse is partly my own fault as with 6 children it is not easy. It still does not take away those responsibilities that I still have but I will ease off from next year.
As for seeing more of the children If Maria and I move to Bali I will see as much of them as I do now but Maria much less so I just need to find the right balance.
It will happen but might take an extra year....still who knows the situation is very flexible and the markets and currencies may bounce back or the cost of living go down. I live in hope
yeah the challenging thing with the gbp is that at 2USD it was out of what on a purchasing power basis.. now it's at parity on a purchasing power basis, so there's no fundamental reason for it to increase - not to say that it won't, it definitely may, but again, a rise will be out of line with it's purchasing power fundamentals..
it doesn't sound like you have too much concern regarding the drop in value of your assets when measured against the usd jimbo, but yes, the rupiah being pegged to the dollar will affect you.. i guess if what markit says turns out to be correct (and remember for every 'analyst' that says something will fall, another one says it will rise), you'll do good on a rupiah basis - unfortunately such a weak rupiah will very quickly drive up inflation in indo..
all the best,
ct
it doesn't sound like you have too much concern regarding the drop in value of your assets when measured against the usd jimbo, but yes, the rupiah being pegged to the dollar will affect you.. i guess if what markit says turns out to be correct (and remember for every 'analyst' that says something will fall, another one says it will rise), you'll do good on a rupiah basis - unfortunately such a weak rupiah will very quickly drive up inflation in indo..
all the best,
ct
BaliLife I luv you like a brother and in any other situation I would be offering to have your children but,
if I had ever dared to write such a sentence I would humbly ask for painful Euthanasia from any passing stranger.
What The F*ck does "definitely may" mean in FinancialAdvisersperanto?
BaliLife said:
if I had ever dared to write such a sentence I would humbly ask for painful Euthanasia from any passing stranger.
What The F*ck does "definitely may" mean in FinancialAdvisersperanto?
You’re an interesting guy Jimbo. It seems to me that “self sacrifice” is in your blood. For certain, you view your responsibilities as head of home, father, and patriarch far differently than I ever would.
It seems to me that any man of our close proximity in age would chose to be with his family, and risk the financial consequences of doing just that, far over a decision to remain away, and continue on in the sawah, with the aspiration that things may get better…later.
It also seems to me that the family of such a man would want the same.
I’m sorry Jimbo, but I’m not buying what you say. In truth, you could retire…maybe with less per year than you hoped for, but surely able to ride out the current cycle. It isn’t like you will need to take all your assets for the first year of your retirement!
For all the time you have been on this forum…going on to close to four years, you have either been in Saudi Arabia, or where you are now, working in a managerial position in the oil business. Those jobs pay very well. So, being that you are no fool, what else to surmise than that you salted a lot of that away?
Prior to SA, you were in Indonesia…same kind of expertise…oil, right?
Jimbo, your pleas of “I’m too broke to retire” are falling on deaf ears…mine anyway for certain.
It seems to me that any man of our close proximity in age would chose to be with his family, and risk the financial consequences of doing just that, far over a decision to remain away, and continue on in the sawah, with the aspiration that things may get better…later.
It also seems to me that the family of such a man would want the same.
I’m sorry Jimbo, but I’m not buying what you say. In truth, you could retire…maybe with less per year than you hoped for, but surely able to ride out the current cycle. It isn’t like you will need to take all your assets for the first year of your retirement!
For all the time you have been on this forum…going on to close to four years, you have either been in Saudi Arabia, or where you are now, working in a managerial position in the oil business. Those jobs pay very well. So, being that you are no fool, what else to surmise than that you salted a lot of that away?
Prior to SA, you were in Indonesia…same kind of expertise…oil, right?
Jimbo, your pleas of “I’m too broke to retire” are falling on deaf ears…mine anyway for certain.
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