Indo Stock Market

[Markit]

They are talking years before this plays out here in the UK.

Couple of sure things from my point of view:

1.The UK and Europe will get hit worse than America - they always do, and they can't speak with one voice about anything, and the US can.

2.The developing world - won't, for a while. But poor people haven't got much to lose so it won't change much.

3.It is a good time to find a bolt hole (see number 2).

4.China is the real winner and will not slow down or cut the rest of us any slack.

5. Asia will recover soonest (see 2,3 and 4)

6. I'm off to Bali :lol:

 

[BaliLife]

1.The UK and Europe will get hit worse than America - they always do, and they can't speak with one voice about anything, and the US can.

many are suggesting this will be the case.. the funny thing is that US home prices (like gas) still appear very reasonably priced compared to most other developed regions of the world - even at their peak, they were approx US$250k on average for a single dwelling - still very cheap compared to canada, australia and most of europe..

5. Asia will recover soonest (see 2,3 and 4)

i think this will likely be the case also - though it depends where in asia you're referring to - i think developed asia, like singapore, hk and japan will hurt more than say indo, thailand & china - the real economy i mean..

ct

 

[Markit]

You missed point 6! For me, the most important

 

[goldminer]

It is reported in the perth paper today, The West Australian, that the indo govt has approach the aussie govt for help due to the economic crisis. It says it has asked for 3 billion in help and also sought help also from other sources, i guess IMF, World Bank etc. It is before the aussie govt now. FYI

 

[Markit]

That's interesting Goldminer - haven't read that in any of the dailies Herald Trib, jakarta, etc. but that doesn't mean much. We will see, as the saying goes. In the 3 weeks I've been on the island the rup has dropped like a rock. The keep saying that the indo gov has 50Bill in foreign reserves to play with. Maybe they've played and lost it already . Still don't think 3 bill will go very far in this day and age.

 

[Jimbo]

15,000 to 19,000 to the pound in less than 2 weeks. Looks like they are not following or supporting their dollar parity rate any mone.

 

[Markit]

Goldminer I just found the article you mentioned. Well, by the time it makes the news you gotta think that the situation is pretty shaky, I mean governments don't let us mere mortals see what they have planned for us until it's usually too late.

Jimbo, as bad as it may be for the indo economy the rise and rise of the pound against the rupiah can only be good for wannabe expats like you and me - you mentioned a few weeks ago your concerns with the value of your pension - one way to improve that is to get it in indo rupes.

The only concern (admittedly small at the moment) is that what goes up can come down a little birdy from Leaman Bros. told me :cry:

 

[Roy]

15,000 to 19,000 to the pound in less than 2 weeks. Looks like they are not following or supporting their dollar parity rate any mone.

Actually, it's the US dollar to the GBP that is at work here. If you track the rates GBP to the US $ compared to the IDR to the US $...it’s almost identical since early August.

 

[BaliLife]

It seems like the pound might get close to parity with the USD.. Ok well that's a way off - probably mot going to happen.. But the GBP has been overvalued far too long.. 2 USD's, yeah right - what can you buy in london for 1 pound (2 USD not so long ago)? A half smoked cigarrette?

OECD has forecast the UK will be hit the worst.. Hope that doesn't mean there won't be a Bridget Jones #3

Ct

 

[Markit]

Comparing apples and oranges is tough - I still reckon that the Economist Big Mac course is the best indicator of buying power - it aint perfect but it gives a better idea than any other comparison that I've found.

 

[Jimbo]

Almost every country I have worked in I have used a bottle of beer as a cost of living comparison. It works for me.

 

[Markit]

But Jimbo the value of a bottle of beer depends on too many things to be any good:
How thirsty are you? (if yes, more valuable)
Is it the first one or the 13th of the night? (less valuable)
Are you in a Muslim country where its not legal? (more)
Is it the last one they have? (more)
Is it Bintang? (much less...)

So you see too many variable for a good standard of value, don't you think.

 

[Jimbo]

As I do not drink beer very much items 1 and 2 and 4 and 5 are not relavent. If item 3 well most muslim countries do sell beer but I would have to rethink if not.

The point is that in developing countries where beer tends to be a luxury it is a good guide to costs for an expat. It has worked for me for almost 40 years in many, many different countries and has never been far from the truth.

 

[Markit]

Ok, I'll take you seriously Jimbo. If you take Bintang at 19000 Rs per in the shops that is about an English pound. In England I can get a pint in the shops for maybe 30p. Now if I go into a pub or restaurant for the exact same beer in the UK I would shell out between 2.80 and 3.80 an increase of over 1000%. If I go into a restaurant in Bali and order the exact same Bintang I would pay between 20000 and 35000 Rs. an increase in just 10-90%.

How does that help me out figuring the cost of living in Indonesia as most Indonesians would never drink a Bintang, be it from the shop or in a Warung because the price for them is outrageous. For me too, I must add, it's vile stuff and only good for washing down a bad Nasi but there you go that's just me!

 

[mimpimanis]

Indonesians would never drink a Bintang, be it from the shop or in a Warung because the price for them is outrageous.

I just got back from my local mini market, where there are about 10/12 guys sitting at the tables outside drinking beer as there are every night. I dont go out partying here in Bali much but whenever I go to our local "live music bar" in Lombok there are more locals than tourists, mostly drinking beer. Warungs in small villages with no tourists sell beer - because the locals do drink it. Oh and yes, we used to have a kiosk and we too sold beer and most of our customers were locals.

 

[BaliLife]

most Indonesians would never drink a Bintang, be it from the shop or in a Warung because the price for them is outrageous

:?: a lot of indonesians i know drink bintang, a lot of bintang - in both java and bali.. not every indonesian makes 2000 Rp a day markit.. it's first and foremost a domestic product, so there's obviously a market for it here..

I must add, it's vile stuff and only good for washing down a bad Nasi but there you go that's just me!

well you're right, taste is personal, but i think bintang is a great brew. i'd take it any day of the week over 90% of aussie beers (except a Carlton Cold or a VB :wink: ).. but that's just me.. well not just me actually, most of my aussie mates, who are far greater beer connoisseurs than I absolutely love bintang.. i was just having a conversation with a mate of mine the other day about why indonesia doesn't mass export it - it would sell very well in australia i'm certain (as long as the taxes didn't make it ridiculously more expensive than local beer)..

ct

 

[SG]

How does that help me out figuring the cost of living in Indonesia as most Indonesians would never drink a Bintang, be it from the shop or in a Warung because the price for them is outrageous

Well I guess I'm not living in Indonesia then because I know lots who drink it (and the local hole in the wall warungs in my street seem to stock it and they are definitely not targeting me).

And Bintang, compared to 95% of the soap water found in the UK, US and Australia (the last two seem unable to produce a real beer), is a mighty fine beer and a classic in the light Asian style. It is, after all, simply a refinement of Heineken.

 

[Markit]

Mea Culpa, my Bad, I'm wrong - sorry. I was just going on my personal experience that any of the Balinese that I invite for a beer seem to want anything other than a Bintang and the couple of time that I've asked why they said that they don't ever drink it.

That's what you get for drawing conclusions on too little info - I will try not to do it again

 

[SG]

If you want ugly local beers, try Bali Hai or Anker. Truly awful.

 

[ronb]

If you want ugly local beers, try Bali Hai or Anker. Truly awful.

Well as others have said - tastes are subjective. I like them all, particularly BaliHai Draught - and dunno how you can say truly awful. Wouldn't it be boring to only have one label you can enjoy?