Can anyone tell me why the USD is still strong, and the AUD is copping the flogging?
hi.. 3 main reasons for this:
1. it's almost entirely related
to the repeated (
continual i should say) unwinding of the
yen carry trade. as risk appetite decreases (as it has rapidly done over the last few weeks), global investors who had sold the yen (an ultra low yielding currency) to buy aud (a relatively high yielding currency - higher a few months back) start to unwind these positions - i.e. they sell their aud forcing down the value of the aud and either pump it back into yen (hence the rise in the value or the yen) or buy US treasury bills - considered a safe haven.. the aud is particularly vulnerable to this..
2. also in the
last 3 months, investors have seen the interest rate differentials between the US and australia
narrow somewhat.. i.e. before the RBA started cutting, the difference in yield between other major currencies and the aud was greater than what it is today,
and that resulted in other "carry trade" positions being established, and again now, unwound..
3. weaker commodity prices and speculation of further weakness - as prices on commodities that australia produce decrease or as the volume of commodities exported decreases, there's less demand for aud, because to buy commodities from australia, even though the prices are pegged to the usd, you still need to pay in
the aud equivalent, which means selling whatever your base currency is in order to buy the aud. high demand drives up the price of the aud and speculators jump on board expecting further rises.. lower demand
results in a fundamental softening of the aud and again, speculators jump on board and exacerbate the swing..
ct