economic outlook for indonesia for next 5yrs

[BaliLife]

Ok all,

I can't post it or exerpts from it because it's an internal document for the bank I work for (hint - one of 2 largest banks in the world (depending how u measure banks), 4 letter acronym as name, based in england but with roots in hk and shanghai)..

The outlook for indo is goooood, in fact better than the large majority of countries in the region including china which is largely seen to have peaked out and likely to cool in terms of growth (as % of growth in gdp going into next year), growth in indo estimated at a steady and healthy 7-8% p.a. for the coming 5yrs.. Credit given to the bank of indo's raising of rates in the early 2000's to stem inflationary pressures, this has given indo a strong platform for sustained growth in the coming years. Also the rupiah is considered undervalued by some 30-45% in all purchasing price parity studies and political stability is seen as improving as well as having already greatly improved..

This was in the global economic outlook published by the group economic team in london..

Hope this is of interest..

Ct

 

[iainsomers]

As a profesionnal hedgefund trader I'm of the opinion that this report is right. One of my concers is that the majority of analysts think like that and analysts are soo many times wrong.

 

[DCC]

What's the impliction BaliL??? Impact to our island good or bad, and for whom??? Honestly, regardless of of indo's econ situation, as long political stability is not threatened, won't the impact on Bali will marginal? More important is the rest of Asia, as growth pushes tourism here, which pushes investment. And is growth as it is heading now a good thing? I believe the growing strength of the SEA region in general and the associated growth in regional tourism will only add to any existing identity crisis in Bali. When I envision the future I see more and more of less and less of Bali. And if I was an enlighted billionaire and a Bali lover, I would explore progressive and unique branded businesses to base here (John Hardey Jewelry???), and as far as real estate development, I would love to see Bali become the preimere proving ground for inspired green building and sustainable luxury. Off topic? I dunno but that's my opinion .

 

[SG]

so lets hope that some of this money and growth if and when it comes filters down to the populace and doesn't end up making the very very wealthy richer, as always seems to be the way in RI.

Some massive increase in education spending (in the news recently 20,000 of the 46,000 teachers in Bali are below the required minimum qualification) would be a start, public road safety campaigns beyond a few signs advising people to turn their bike lights on in the day (half the people around here don't even use them at night...as if that's going to work), increasing police salaries, removing the Fiskal exit tax to bring RI in line with the ASEAN rules so people can travel.... could go on and on, but IMO education is number one.

Oh, and removing the odd monopoly here and there....

 

[Sanurian]

Spot on, SG

Couldn't agree with you more.

Some serious spending on education and health would be a breath of fresh air. I'd even love to see a relatively simple thing like some decent, government-sponsored public libraries. The main one in Denpasar is a total joke, in my opinion!

Bali's electrical grid is also severely burdened, not to mention the supply of potable water for many locals. With the population of Bali pushing the 4 million mark, one wonders how this rather small island can cope with the continuing assaults from more villa building, more big hotels, more supermarkets, more golf courses, etc? Of course, we then have to include the numbers of foreign tourists coming here annually, as well as the domestic ones from other parts of Indonesia.

I am, by no means, an 'economic analyst', but I think that Blind Freddy can see that 'too much' more ill-considered 'development' may not be sustainable. Something's gotta give, sooner or later. Maybe it's started...

:cry:

 

[SG]

yep, free, compulsory enforced education, to the age of 15 with properly educated teachers would change this country within half a generation. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam all realised that, and operate on those principles.

And tertiary education in Indonesia is a complete joke.

All it takes is money and, as importantly, the willpower to fix it. The first part is not unachievable, the second part, when the elite spends most of it's time enriching itself, is the really hard part.

Build the libraries, but you have to infuse the kids with the desire to read at the same time.

Educate, and everything else follows, including a realisation that corrupt and dishonest practices are unacceptable. Educate and people want the world..

One of the Dutch crimes against Indonesia was it's refusal to properly educate the masses.

 

[Sanurian]

I'm with you most of the way, SG

It's a real shame that the growing number of dis-enfranchised in this country are getting nowhere fast (I hope there wasn't an oxymoron somewhere there, on my part).

You stated something that's been on my mind for a long time, viz

Build the libraries, but you have to infuse the kids with the desire to read at the same time...(my emphasis)

That's a hard one for sure, especially these days, with internet cafes all over the place, TV's in nearly every warung, PlayStation depots in the most unlikely places.

Before somebody jumps down my neck about this, I am not suggesting that all contemporary Balinese youth hate reading. I am always amazed at the numbers in big book stores (like Gramedia), reading stuff without buying anything. I am also aware of various attempts by expats to set-up lending libraries in the past, with free borrowing rights for locals. Many locals didn't quite understand the fact that you're supposed to bring the books back. These libraries have been forced to impose monetary deposits before borrowing, otherwise they'd end up with no books to lend.

I think this statement is a bit strong:

...And tertiary education in Indonesia is a complete joke...

It may well be a bad joke in many, maybe most instances but I believe that there are still some reputable institutions, with international credentials.

I haven't been to 'university towns' like Jogjakarta for a few years now. It used to be the case there that you could buy various degrees almost on the streets. From memory, a 'PhD' cost about a one million rupiah...'masters' and 'bachelors' degrees were cheaper. I think there was a crack-down on this, especially after the infamous cases of some parliamentary officials holding fake degrees, even high-school diplomas. The fake degreed ones had all 'attended/studied' in fictitious campuses 'located' in Bandung and Jakarta. They had no real premises, no lecturers and no other 'staff', to speak of.

I completely agree with this comment of yours:

Educate, and everything else follows.

Either bring it on Indonesia, or, don't cry for me Indonesia.

Anybody got any thoughts about the proposed fibre-optic cabling throughout Indonesia so (nearly) everybody can have a telephone and internet access? Supposed to be in place by the end of next year? Or is that some kind of nasi bungkus in the sky?

 

[BaliLife]

Hi all,

Was up in our family's cabin just east of vancouver for the long weekend and just got back in signal... I agree that the unequal distribution of wealth in indo as a whole is a large problem, and not an easy one to solve.. Education helps but requires policies created by visionaries.. There was another article posted on 9msn or somewhere about tourism back on the rise this year in bali (I'll post the url after), which I'm guessing most would agree is good for the local balinese.. For the time being, I hope economic prosperity will benefit all indonesians... Not just the wealthy..

Ct

 

[SG]

It may well be a bad joke in many, maybe most instances but I believe that there are still some reputable institutions, with international credentials.

My comments here come from two things. Firstly the repeated comments I've had from educators I know both here and abroad who've looked at, or are involved in the tertiary level education available in Indonesia. The comments are generally along the lines that there simply are not the educators here to educate..they, to put it simply, disappear as soon as they graduate if they are any good. There was a time, in the early sixties when Malaysia used to headhunt teachers from Indonesia, the cream were that good. No longer of course..most Indonesian qualifications simply don't travel anywhere anymore I understand and the salaries and immigration barriers attract very few, if any to these isles.

Secondly, its anecdotal, but a friend of mine, to whom Bahasa is a second language, a couple of years back topped an Indonesian (as first language) class in Bali. It was a full time course, and he averaged two days a week, being the only non-Indonesian in the class. His comment was that the study methods necessary to successfully complete the course, which he'd learned in his European education, simply hadn't been taught to the local kids. You need to learn these things at an early age, but the system was so flawed from year one upwards that very few, only the truly talented or lucky (ie having the right domestic surroundings) stand a chance

That's a hard one for sure, especially these days, with internet cafes all over the place,

The internet....well it opens up the world to people hopefully. It has very much an up side too. But it needs to be cheap, fast and accessible which brings me back to those self serving Suharto era monopolies which still plague things like telecommunications in RI. My daughter is a net fiend but still reads..its all about information for her. More power to the net I say....

 

[Adam]

The comments are generally along the lines that there simply are not the educators here to educate..they, to put it simply, disappear as soon as they graduate if they are any good.

SG, you hit the nail on the head with that one. I remember vividly during a study tour to Indonesia in 1999 visiting a University in Semarang (the name of which eludes me at present) examining the facilities of the Faculty of Biology. The facilities were world class, certainly much better than anything we had at Curtin University (where I studied and Biology is a bit of a poor relative to mega money generating School of Business and trendy Engineering Faculties) in terms of plant and equipment and especially in the field of Marine Biology, Fisheries Management and Aquaculture (the reason we visited this particular university). From memory, most of this had been supplied through foreign aid grants and the like, the sad part was hardly a soul in the place knew how to run any of the equipment, let alone teach anybody else how to use it! It was a major shock for us, a huge building, full of some incredible equipment and facilities that we would have killed for back home and barely a student studying there. Meanwhile we had world class scientists teaching us in crap facilities in a field where only 3 out of 30 of us have managed to find jobs in our field.

Now that I have graduated I would love to go back and teach some eager Indonesian minds in a facility such as this. Coupled with Indonesia's huge aquaculture industry, you would have the potential to produce many world class graduates that many western countries would find hard to compete against. Its a pretty sad waste of a whole lot of potential.

 

[Adam]

whoops, sorry stuffed up with the quoting....
adz

 

[Sanurian]

I know what you're saying, SG.

I concur once again. I haven't been involved with tertiary education in my own country (Australia), for more than a decade, but even then, many Indonesian 'qualifications' were considered to be next to useless. (Note that I didn't say all of them.) It wouldn't surprise me to learn that things have deteriorated and standards have slipped even further.

...most Indonesian qualifications simply don't travel anywhere anymore...

I think that is a very poignant observation, if it's true. Makes you wonder why anybody is 'studying' anything in this this country, especially if they're hoping to get some sort of accreditation for their work outside of Indonesia.

I've seen people arrive in Australia with various 'degrees', only to be told that they were assessed as roughly the equivalent of a high-school diploma. They were the 'lucky' ones...

 

[SG]

I've seen people arrive in Australia with various 'degrees', only to be told that they were assessed as roughly the equivalent of a high-school diploma. They were the 'lucky' ones...

Yep, and in NZ and Malaysia they are forced to become taxi drivers. It's very sad to see so many wasted generations. It has to change, but will it? I was told by someone in Kintimani last year that dozens of kids don't go to school at all because the school demands an extra pay off just to enroll them, and no-one has the money...things like that...I don't know how common that is, but for f**ks sake....

 

[Bert Vierstra]

Re: RE: economic outlook for indonesia for next 5yrs

was told by someone in Kintimani last year that dozens of kids don't go to school at all because the school demands an extra pay off just to enroll them, and no-one has the money...things like that...I don't know how common that is, but for f**ks sake....

Its getting worse.

It is already know for some time that people have to pay quite a lot to become a policeman, or to be able to work on a cruise ship (dream for many).

Yesterday I heard that they now even ask money to get a job in hospitality, such as a Hotel job.

It seem you need to pay about 10 million to get a 500-700.000 rp a month job

 

[BaliLife]

Now that's rough.. There just must be a complete over supply of qualified staff for such to be 'accepted' by the workforce.. But the pool-boys at the conrad do seem to be havin a great time..

Ct

 

[Balibaba]

"Rising Invesment" a blurb from the Economist ...

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/dis ... id=9640652

 

[jogry blok]

What about the millions you have to pay to get into the army?

 

[Bert Vierstra]

I try to get my father in law to work. Maybe he found something at a fuel station, but even there he will have to pay to get the job.

 

[SG]

Re: RE: economic outlook for indonesia for next 5yrs

What about the millions you have to pay to get into the army?

yeah, but that's just self serving stuff. By charging kids to go to school you ruin their future, and that of the nation. They can wave all the red and white flags they like but if you are a teacher or a headmaster doing that you are a hypocrite

In my opinion of course.

 

[BaliLife]

here's an interesting read.. these are the guys that control the largest, most profitable companies in indo; in some regard, hats off to them:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/80/06i ... _Rank.html

ct