Is this really the Markit of old? Just couldn't resist a tug of the leg.
Covid-19 current situation in Bali
- Thread starter spicyayam
- Start date
Juggler
Active Member
Lol markit as opposed to well known members anger management issues...
Mark
Well-Known Member
I mentioned in another thread that Vitamin D has been found to be effective to prevent and minimize the impacts of respiratory infections, including potentially Covid-19. Here is some food for thought in support of that.. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32252338 and https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/4/988
Markit
Well-Known Member
Is blocked, but the other one is interesting.
Mark
Well-Known Member
It's ok. The one that you found blocked is a summary of the second article.
Just read in Yahoo News that US labs have confirmed their suspicions that the coronavirus does not do well in high temperatures nor humid conditions. Sorry too happy to take the time for the link. If valid this certainly provides us with at least a bit of relief coming from a hopefully solid source, and is certainly some confirmation of the suspicions some us have held given the recent history of events in Bali. Naysayers need not comment!
Mark
Well-Known Member
That's interesting, though I wonder how Singaporeans would react to that information as they currently are up to 600-700 new cases a day, even with their lock down.. And not to mention Jakarta, which is on a similar trajectory.
This is why we always have to know the situation behind the rough statistics. Singapore is an excellent example in which to pose that question. They have done all the right things it seems in governance against the virus, but have they failed, and is climate irrelevant?
First off I don't think climate is irrelevant, but if a nation/state such as this with a great many people visiting on business, and other important matters from outside have had contact in other climates and other nations the inevitable chance of virus introduction will occur, and become part of the statistics. From what I recall, however the low death rate has been due to the diligence in follow up and subsequent care dispensed. The introduction to a favorable climate in this perusal can't be underestimated.
Now skipping on to my earlier euphoric report am now back to earth with the news that a nearby family was exposed to a returning cruise line employee relative apparently now stricken with the coronavirus. If he was tested negative when returning home to Bali why in the Hell was he not still placed in controlled quarantine for 14 days to provide a viable medical once over given his notoriously terrible prior work exposure? This bullshit non-existence of any rational government control of such a potentially eruptive problem is beyond comprehension!
Markit
Well-Known Member
A very interesting post on FB about Bali Herd immunity - not a specialist but some sound, logical thinking - worth a read:
The link if you wish to read the original: https://www.facebook.com/groups/534295604134915/permalink/553089255588883/
My theory:
I strongly believe Bali has already developed “Herd Immunity”. The majority of Balinese have likely had or been highly exposed to Coronavirus and have developed antibodies and immunity to it.
We’ve travelled across the island and polled many people, there isn’t anyone here who knows a local Balinese person to have had Covid-19 or shows any symptoms at all since mid-March. There are only 10 people in isolation in the main hospital in Bali, mostly all imported cases.
Meanwhile, many are now reporting that Balinese and expats living here were extremely sick in January and February. But we’re healthy now.
What we need to prove that Bali has Herd Immunity:
1. We need the antibody test for all Balinese to show we’ve already been infected and have immunity.
2. If you can help fund this and get these tests here, we can coordinate and have all Balinese tested through our village Banjar system. We have 99% voter turn out because of our Banjar system.
3. With proven herd immunity, we can open Bali again slowly. With a new tourism that focuses on sustainability, environmental and cultural protection.
Facts:
1. Only 2 people (Foreigners) have died in Bali from Covid-19. The first on March 11. Our hospitals have only had total 89 cases, the majority being foreigners or imported from other parts of Indonesia.
2. We have 2.5 million Chinese Tourists in Bali each year, a huge percentage were in Bali from December 2019 (peak Christmas/NYE) right up until February 5, 2020 (Chinese New Year). 10,000 Chinese tourists remained in Bali during the height of Chinese New Year as they could not get flights back to China when Indonesia banned flights to/from China on February 5.
3. We had direct flights to Wuhan, China up until February 5, 2020.
4. After peak Christmas and NYE, my daughter went back to school on January 6. More than half her classmates were away sick! There were only 12 out of out 26 kids in her class for 2 weeks. Santi fell ill with a hacking cough where she could hardly breathe because she coughed so hard. She still had enough energy to go to school and no fever.
5. She says everyone in her class had this cough. It then passed to the ENTIRE high school, down to elementary school, teachers and parents. At that time, I researched it and determined it was “Walking Pneumonia”. This was January 10-20 timing.
6. China announced the existence of Coronavirus on January 23.
7. On January 27, our extremely good friend died. He was a 65-year-old Balinese male with poor health conditions. He died by not being able to breathe. Immediately following, we had days of massive cremation ceremonies of 10,000-15,000 people packed like sardines in Kerobokan.
8. In January, there was a huge uptick in older people dying in our village. We went to many more cremations at that time (late Jan/early Feb). As these were older people with underlying health issues, it wasn’t shocking or treated as Coronavirus. Nor did we have any ability to test for Coronavirus at that time.
9. From February 14-29, we went into 2 full weeks of island-wide ceremonies called Sugi, Galungan and Kuningan. 4,000,000 Balinese would be huddled together on the floors or bales at temples, drinking communal Holywater, touching each other and going home to their remote villages to stay with their families.
10. For Balinese people, nobody would ever go to the doctor for a dry cough and fever.
11. If old people who had heart, lung or diabetes died, we wouldn’t have though it unusual.
12. And we share EVERYTHING! Especially Holywater at Temple. Can you imagine how dirty that is? Twenty of us Priests make the Holywater in containers that have never been washed with soap, we add bits of offerings that others have made including bits of string and flowers to the water. These individual containers are combined into The Holywater which we them add tap water that’s been smoked and in a ceramic urn that also has never been washed in generations. When I bless people, I bless 100 people with this same water. I splash them and give them this water to drink 3 times.
13. Only 8% of the Indonesian population are over 65 so it's a young population, average age is 29.
14. 76% smoke, mostly men.
15. Our average temperature is 28-30 Celsius
16. 90% of Balinese live in open air family compounds without any air conditioning.
17. Balinese have super strong immune systems as their gut microbiomes are exposed to all sorts of bacterial, dirt, etc. Did you read point #11?
Next steps - please comment below if you can help here:
1. We need the antibody test for all Balinese to show we’ve already been infected and have immunity.
2. If you can help fund this and get these tests here, we can coordinate and have all Balinese tested through our village Banjar system. We have 99% voter turn out because of our Banjar system.
3. With proven herd immunity, we can open Bali again slowly. With a new tourism that focuses on sustainability, environmental and cultural protection.
The link if you wish to read the original: https://www.facebook.com/groups/534295604134915/permalink/553089255588883/
My theory:
I strongly believe Bali has already developed “Herd Immunity”. The majority of Balinese have likely had or been highly exposed to Coronavirus and have developed antibodies and immunity to it.
We’ve travelled across the island and polled many people, there isn’t anyone here who knows a local Balinese person to have had Covid-19 or shows any symptoms at all since mid-March. There are only 10 people in isolation in the main hospital in Bali, mostly all imported cases.
Meanwhile, many are now reporting that Balinese and expats living here were extremely sick in January and February. But we’re healthy now.
What we need to prove that Bali has Herd Immunity:
1. We need the antibody test for all Balinese to show we’ve already been infected and have immunity.
2. If you can help fund this and get these tests here, we can coordinate and have all Balinese tested through our village Banjar system. We have 99% voter turn out because of our Banjar system.
3. With proven herd immunity, we can open Bali again slowly. With a new tourism that focuses on sustainability, environmental and cultural protection.
Facts:
1. Only 2 people (Foreigners) have died in Bali from Covid-19. The first on March 11. Our hospitals have only had total 89 cases, the majority being foreigners or imported from other parts of Indonesia.
2. We have 2.5 million Chinese Tourists in Bali each year, a huge percentage were in Bali from December 2019 (peak Christmas/NYE) right up until February 5, 2020 (Chinese New Year). 10,000 Chinese tourists remained in Bali during the height of Chinese New Year as they could not get flights back to China when Indonesia banned flights to/from China on February 5.
3. We had direct flights to Wuhan, China up until February 5, 2020.
4. After peak Christmas and NYE, my daughter went back to school on January 6. More than half her classmates were away sick! There were only 12 out of out 26 kids in her class for 2 weeks. Santi fell ill with a hacking cough where she could hardly breathe because she coughed so hard. She still had enough energy to go to school and no fever.
5. She says everyone in her class had this cough. It then passed to the ENTIRE high school, down to elementary school, teachers and parents. At that time, I researched it and determined it was “Walking Pneumonia”. This was January 10-20 timing.
6. China announced the existence of Coronavirus on January 23.
7. On January 27, our extremely good friend died. He was a 65-year-old Balinese male with poor health conditions. He died by not being able to breathe. Immediately following, we had days of massive cremation ceremonies of 10,000-15,000 people packed like sardines in Kerobokan.
8. In January, there was a huge uptick in older people dying in our village. We went to many more cremations at that time (late Jan/early Feb). As these were older people with underlying health issues, it wasn’t shocking or treated as Coronavirus. Nor did we have any ability to test for Coronavirus at that time.
9. From February 14-29, we went into 2 full weeks of island-wide ceremonies called Sugi, Galungan and Kuningan. 4,000,000 Balinese would be huddled together on the floors or bales at temples, drinking communal Holywater, touching each other and going home to their remote villages to stay with their families.
10. For Balinese people, nobody would ever go to the doctor for a dry cough and fever.
11. If old people who had heart, lung or diabetes died, we wouldn’t have though it unusual.
12. And we share EVERYTHING! Especially Holywater at Temple. Can you imagine how dirty that is? Twenty of us Priests make the Holywater in containers that have never been washed with soap, we add bits of offerings that others have made including bits of string and flowers to the water. These individual containers are combined into The Holywater which we them add tap water that’s been smoked and in a ceramic urn that also has never been washed in generations. When I bless people, I bless 100 people with this same water. I splash them and give them this water to drink 3 times.
13. Only 8% of the Indonesian population are over 65 so it's a young population, average age is 29.
14. 76% smoke, mostly men.
15. Our average temperature is 28-30 Celsius
16. 90% of Balinese live in open air family compounds without any air conditioning.
17. Balinese have super strong immune systems as their gut microbiomes are exposed to all sorts of bacterial, dirt, etc. Did you read point #11?
Next steps - please comment below if you can help here:
1. We need the antibody test for all Balinese to show we’ve already been infected and have immunity.
2. If you can help fund this and get these tests here, we can coordinate and have all Balinese tested through our village Banjar system. We have 99% voter turn out because of our Banjar system.
3. With proven herd immunity, we can open Bali again slowly. With a new tourism that focuses on sustainability, environmental and cultural protection.
Markit this article is the most revealing thing I have read, and certainly coincides with my own observations. I would like to contribute to the apparent program seeking funds, but before doing so would like to be clear as to its identity. Your article copy didn't mention it and can't read it on Facebook as am not a member. Could you please provide the name of this charity? Going naked with a contribution to my banjar isn't smart.
Mark
Well-Known Member
The points in Markit's post are consistent with my observations and experience. I remember going to a clinic/pharmacy for some medicine in late January for my wife, who had a cough and a mild fever (hmmmm...). The place was absolutely packed with locals, standing room only. Never seen the clinic so busy. Subsequently, I had some congestion and strangely a total loss of smell for several days. This was the first time I'd experienced this but thought nothing of it, until reading in March that it is a symptom of Covid-19. Several expat friends also got ill during January/Feb, some pretty bad, as in they couldn't get out of bed for a week.
I have been tracking the official numbers reported each day, and they are still very low (average of 5 cases or so). My Balinese friends say the cases they have heard of are all from returning cruise ship workers coming from Europe and the US. If this were the first wave, it should be spreading like wildfire since despite some decent efforts, many people are still congregating and hanging out together. So I agree, let's bring on the antibody tests! Unfortunately, we may have to wait a while as they are not yet widely available in Indonesia..
I have been tracking the official numbers reported each day, and they are still very low (average of 5 cases or so). My Balinese friends say the cases they have heard of are all from returning cruise ship workers coming from Europe and the US. If this were the first wave, it should be spreading like wildfire since despite some decent efforts, many people are still congregating and hanging out together. So I agree, let's bring on the antibody tests! Unfortunately, we may have to wait a while as they are not yet widely available in Indonesia..
I have been holding off to post this but seems appropriate thread. I traveled to Bali 2nd February for approx 3 weeks, Mrs and I were staying in Sanur at that point. Visited her family in Karangesm village as we usually would to find her 6 year old brother laying on the floor looking nearly dead. I was that worried about his condition that we packed him in the car and I paid the fee for him to go to Bali Mandari in Sanur. He was high fever, like he had stuck mucus that wouldn't come out and it took him about a week to recover but he got over it. Really scared me I've never seen a kid so sick. This was the very beginning when Corona Virus was just on news in shown in China. Before February was out I returned to Perth and felt quite unwell for a few days, like a cold but coughing up greenish mucas (bbc news told me no mucas it won't come out but shrugs). I pushed through it and was ok. Back to Bali 15/3 for a few weeks but I returned to Perth on 29/3 as flights had become so scarce and the thought of extened Nypei didn't appeal to me. But yeah posting to back up the antibody theory, the early infections and I think Mark it might even be from Karengesm (but don't quote me and it's a big village).
//edit: Hospital diagnosed as asthma and prescibed a bunch of panadol and cough medicine.
//edit: Hospital diagnosed as asthma and prescibed a bunch of panadol and cough medicine.
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spicyayam
Well-Known Member
I was also sick early January. My son also had a throat infection around that time. We stayed in some busy hotels for Christmas/New Years with lots of Chinese in Kuta. So I am hoping I/we had the virus then and hopefully are somewhat protected from it now.
I am keen to have the anti-body test when it becomes readily available here. I think that would be a better statistic to count globally.
I am keen to have the anti-body test when it becomes readily available here. I think that would be a better statistic to count globally.
Markit
Well-Known Member
I believe it's called "Feed a Family" but I can't find anything that isn't FaceBook so you're gonna have to join.
Markit
Well-Known Member
Some further information that I've heard connected to my original posting above that is interesting: apparently some other islands have noticed a similar effect - in the Caribbean (also subject to a large tourist invasion pre Xmas/New Year and, of all places, also Haiti. All anecdotal so far but dying for a research team...
Markit thats the pot calling the kettle black.isn.t it
Markit
Well-Known Member
I'll admit to patience management problems.
Markit
Well-Known Member
This fits in really well with Spicy's post from the Yale study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1) Singapore, and for that matter cruise ships, all have a much more "indoor" society and hence, according to the study, are much more infectious. Makes perfect sense to me. Live in a bamboo hut in Bali and be happy and healthy!!!