- a very strong Balinese culture that doesn't integrate foreigners despite what some believe. There is no integration. People can be mislead as Balinese will let almost everybody feel welcome but when it comes to integration it's another matter.
Maybe you can tell some of your own experiences ?
Integration is a two-way process requiring efforts from both parties.
I believe very few expats actually make the effort to integrate by, for instance, participating in the life of the village and the ceremonies taking place. If this first step in the direction of the Balinese culture is not taken then integration will not happen for those individuals not willing to initiate the process.
Many expats believe that distributing dollars will buy them integration. It doesn't work like that. It's not because you employ 5 or 6 Balinese and that you pay your "village" taxes without wincing that you are part of the whole. At this stage, the whole is just tolerating you.
This lack of willingness to integrate culturally may result, at some stage, in a rejection of these expats.
Bali should impose a test of Balinese Culture/integration to those who want to settle on the island. Obviously this is a bit far fetched as culture seems to be the last oncern for those in power.
This is what concerns me most. Short-termism from foreign investors and lack of vision from those in charge may result in lack of integration. Lack of integration may, over time, result in rejection. Hence the poll to assess forum participant's opinions.
- the risk of a worldwide recession that will result in dire consequences for emerging markets, especially for real estate speculation.
How do you think this would work in Bali?[/quote]
The world is currently awash with liquidities. Central banks in the developed world (as they like to call it) are making sure that we do not start experiencing deflation.
Some of this excess liquidity is looking for homes. A very popular one has been recently the powerful combination of real estate and emerging markets.
So far so good but what if this excess liquidity is removed from the system? The first markets to suffer are what we people the peripheral ones, the ones that have benfited from this hot money.
For over a year now Central banks have been raising interest rates. This is one way to take away excess liquidity and refrain speculation. If tomorrow we start experiencing a recession in the developed world, the consequences for the emerging markets will be bad.
Do you remember what happened during the Asian crisis back in 1997? How was Bali affected at the time? Was there as much speculation as there is today?
More and more people and Bali rely on these foreign investors. What if tomorrow investments were to stop brutally. What if people could not rely on tourism anymore but had to go back to their land? What if their land was no there anymore as it had been sold to these disappearing foreign investors?
Here again this is a bit far fetched but we are talking about potential triggers and this could be one of them. Even with a probability of less than 0.1% this is still a possible outcome that people should factor in when making choices.