The "seasons" in Bali are not all that predictable these days, especially in the last five years or so.
The "dry" has been longer than usual, meaning the "wet" is late. Like right now, for example. This is supposed to be the "wet", but there really hasn't been all that much rain...yet. And so far, when its rained, there hasn't been a real lot of it. (I'm writing this just as we had a downpour that lasted less than an hour.)
As for Lonely Planet guides - they're OK for a bird's eye view of things, but don't rely on them. They're typically out-of-date by the time they're printed. You can get much more detailed (and up-to-date) information from sites like this one and even Lonely Planet's own Thorntree Forum.
And as far as the local rocket fuel arak is concerned, you'd probably be wise to avoid it, if possible. There are too many greedy locals mixing methanol (and god knows what else), with it, which is not good. Forty or so locals from Sanur wound up in hospital on New Year's Eve. And there've been deaths associated with it in the last couple of years. Unless you're certain the stuff hasn't been defiled (and frankly, I don't know how one can tell without maybe going blind first), steer clear. Commercial arak is probably OK, but even there, with the virtually total lack of quality control in this country, there are no guarantees. Even some of the Bintang beer is adulterated, but usually just watered down.
Hope you have great experiences when you're here.
8)
