AUGUST, SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER...It Begins

[Sanurian]

Whilst I can understand why many of us would like to see the results of this poll as the work of a single crackpot and therefore ignored out of hand, I'm not yet convinced that that's the case.

Looking at the actual report from the link posted above by Mats, it appears that the results are based upon five previous surveys (2000-2005) plus the current one (January, 2006). Two organisations were involved: the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) (2006) and the Freedom Institute and Center for the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM) of the State Islamic University (UIN) in Jakarta. (A total of 3,200 people surveyed, between Aceh and Irian Jaya.)

In order to attempt to look at the state of radicalism throughout Indonesia, what's called "multistage random sampling" was used to produce a statistically representative sample of Indonesia from which to make inferences and generalisations about the national population. In my opinion, this is a worthwhile thing to attempt. Somebody had to do it sooner or later. However, as in all undertakings of this ("scientific") nature, the quality of the methodology has to be extremely high and I'm not sure that it was.

I have only seen the document mentioned above and have no access to the complete technical version so my next comments may be unfair to the "researchers":

1. All the interviews were conducted by "students trained to do interviews". Without passing judgment upon them, that might be an oxymoron (a contradiction of terms). Still, everybody has to learn somehow.

2. Looking at the graphs in the report, I see that there are points for March, 2006. If the latest surveys were done in January, 2006, what are these? Extrapolations, and if so, on what basis? Again, if so, how come some that look like they should go down go up, and vice-versa?

3. There seem to be far too many reported intercorrelations supposedly statistically significant at the 1% probability level (p<0.01). Virtually all experiments in behavioural/social sciences operate at the 5% level (p<0.05). A probability level in this context is simply the chance of getting the same result using the same method. At 5%, it means if the survey were to be repeated in the same way a hundred times, the results would be the same 95/100 times. That's pretty reasonable for the inexact social sciences. But 99/100 is rather an ambitious undertaking and might just reflect upon the level of expertise of the academics teaching in those institutions.

4. Combining results of various surveys undertaken by different people at different times is always problematic, at the very least.

My "conclusion" about all of this is that whilst the study may not be perfect, it was also not simply a random telephone poll. I believe it was a serious attempt to obtain a clearer picture of the growth/decline of radicalism in Indonesia. And that's admirable. Deep down, I hope that 48-58% of Indonesians don't turn out to really believe adulterers should be stoned to death. And maybe it's nice to know that the number of people who believe in amputating the arms of thieves might be decreasing.

The following is a quote from part of the conclusions of the report:

The strengthening of support for radical agendas and means will change the national political map. Parties that have a tendency to struggle for radical agendas will become stronger. Conversely, mass rejection of radical agendas and means will strengthen political forces that do not have an orientation toward radical agendas. Politically, the strengthening of the large parties (PDIP, Golkar, PPP, PKB, PD) can help reduce the tendency for support of radicalism; socially, the spread of anti-radical conceptions of religion will strengthen a national political map that is more open.

I hope so.
:shock:

 

[Roy]

Phil, you raise some interesting points very worthy of consideration (in my view). One thing we haven’t discussed yet is the role of the Indonesian news media as it covers current events...like Lebanon right now, and in the past with other events.

Who can deny that the news media, and in particular, television, is a very powerful force?
Twenty or more years ago, this venue had little influence on the Indonesian populous at large, but these days it seems every compound I go into has at least one modest TV, and while it may not be connected to Indovision, it receives all the major broadcast channels out of Jakarta.

Indonesian broadcast TV news is far more graphic, thus more compelling in creating emotion than Western news...even Sky News. Graphic images of mangled body parts of young children being pulled out of an apartment or house in Lebanon, bombed by the Israelis, can understandably conjures up immediate feelings of anger, hate, resentment and an urge to inflict revenge.

In the West we are used to “sterilized” news, but over here, unless total nudity is involved, the blood and guts are OK.

I’m not advocating news censorship, but on the other hand I have often wondered why the Indonesian broadcast news I watch doesn’t give the same coverage to the carnage of the other innocents, the victims of rocket attacks in Israel?

I am also not suggesting that Indonesian broadcast news is out to be a propaganda tool, or intentionally attempting to incite anti-Israeli or anti-Western views. All I am suggesting is that this media is a very powerful force...one that brings all the horror of any conflict directly into the homes of millions of Indonesians. For me, I am not that confident that many viewers of this news are always capable of “sorting it out.” I include myself in that group, as I went haywire with some of those video clips I saw, just imagining if it was me, the father, pulling one of my sons out in pieces from that rubble.

The solution to this issue escapes me entirely. But, I have little doubt that TV broadcast news here in Indonesia is shaping...to one degree or another, the “minds and hearts” of the Indonesian people.

My continued take on this now “infamous poll” is steadfast. TV news, bombings in Bali and other parts of Indonesia or whatever, will never make me believe for one nano second that 20% of Islamic Indonesians approve of this violence. If it were true, I would already be dead.

 

[Sanurian]

Roy, your concerns about the Indonesian media are entirely justified. But all media everywhere needs to be responsible - I'm not that sure that Indonesia's is that much worse than the rest (apart from the disgusting way dead people are splashed across our screens, and so on).

The solution to this issue escapes me entirely. But, I have little doubt that TV broadcast news here in Indonesia is shaping...to one degree or another, the “minds and hearts” of the Indonesian people.

Part of "the solution" rests squarely upon the availability of a quality education system, that's accessible to everybody in this country. The way I see it, that hasn't been addressed properly so far.

And as for "the infamous poll": It's a shame that various media around the world have picked up on it and blown it all out of proportion. The questions the survey was trying to address are important ones. Big ones. The two institutions that made it public should have been more astute. I hope that the students involved do not become victims of the same radicalism they're trying to study. The same goes for the institutions themselves. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens.

:?

 

[quirkyartist]

Well I will be back to Bali, terrorists or no terrorists.
The thing that I am waiting for with GREAT interest is to see what happens with the Australian Government's DFAT travel warnings NOW.
They have been so keen for us to avoid going to Bali - will they say the same about the UK and the US? I doubt it. I was living and working in central London during many of the IRA bombings and really, maybe I was young & stupid (not THAT young) but it didn't affect they way we conducted our lives. I don't think anyone tried to stop us going to London in those times, either.