WOW! THIS WARNING TAKES THE CAKE!

[Roy]

Or maybe, one could bake a few thousand cakes! I’ve never gotten one of these before...but if Yogyakarta is in your future plans, you might want to read this:

> Wardens: Please distribute this message to the Americans in your
> organization. Thank You
>
>
> U.S. Embassy Jakarta
> U.S. Consulate General Surabaya
> Warden Message
> April 13, 2006
>
>
> The U.S. Embassy informs Americans in Indonesia that the Indonesian
> Center for Vulcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation raised the
> alert status for Mt. Merapi Volcano in Central Java to Level 3 on
> April 12, 2006. Level 3 means that volcanic activity has increased
> and that an eruption might be imminent. Authorities have forbidden
> climbing on Mt. Merapi until further notice, and advised miners and
> local residents to avoid coming within an 8-kilometer radius of
> Merapi's summit.
>
> Updated information on volcanoes in Indonesia is available on the
> websites listed below. The Embassy encourages all Americans residing
> in or visiting areas near volcanoes to consult these websites
> frequently and to adhere to all safety instructions from Indonesian
> authorities.
>
>
> <http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/portal/html/index.php>
>
> http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/general_info/index.htm
> <http://www.vsi.esdm.go.id/general_info/index.htm>
> <http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/>
>
> The Embassy reminds Americans that the information in the November 18,
> 2005 Travel Warning for Indonesia and in recent warden messages
> remains valid. All security-related Travel Warnings and Public
> Announcements, recent Embassy warden messages, and registration
> information are posted on the Embassy's website at
> http://jakarta.usembassy.gov.
>
> Americans living and traveling in Indonesia are urged to register and
> update their contact information with U.S. Embassy Jakarta, U.S.
> Consulate General Surabaya or the U.S. Consular Agent in Bali.
> Registration facilitates the U.S. Mission's contact with Americans in
> emergency situations, and may be done on line and in advance of
> travel. Information on registering can be found at the Department of
> State's Consular Affairs website:
> <https://travelregistration.state.gov/>.
>
> The Embassy is located at Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, No. 4-5,
> Jakarta; the 24-hour telephone number is 021-3435-9000. The telephone
> number of the Consulate General in Surabaya is 031-295-6400; the
> telephone number of the U.S. Consular Agency in Bali is 0361-233-605.
>
>

 

[Sanurian]

Mt Merapi (the Jogjakarta one) is considered to be one of the most potentially dangerous volcanoes on the planet.
The last "major" eruption was is 1994 but there have been several minor ones since then.


What bothers me somewhat is that most (maybe all) of Indonesia's volcanoes are "interconnected" in a sense (a geologist/vulcanologist could shed more light on this). When Merapi erupts (maybe explodes, since Indonesian volcanoes are of the explosive kind), I can only see a major disaster in the surrounding regions (including Jogjakarta). There is a theory that both Borobodur and Prambanan were abandoned centuries ago because of volcanic activity. I certainly hope that the main volcanoes of Bali (Agung, Batur, Abang, Catur and the others), don't follow suit in the near future.

We have Indonesian friends in Jogja and sent some SMSs the other day. What struck us as bizarre was they none of them seemed to be aware of any imminent dangers. In fact, they asked us how we knew. Maybe they don't watch the news on TV. I understand that Merapi has been belching out significantly large clouds of "smoke" for more than a week now. Hard to see how someone could miss that.
:shock:

 

[Roy]

Phil, I guess that's why they call this whole region "The Ring of Fire." A few months ago there was a good show on TV about Krakatau. As you point out, when it lost its top in 1883, it literally blew itself up. Oddly enough, the new volcano that grew from it, called Anak Krakatau, (child of) is already bigger in size than the parent!

 

[Pat]

I was watching an interesting report about Lake Toba in Sumatra on Discovery Channel or National Geographic.

The eruption of this huge volcano 75000 years ago simply end up with a 1000 years ice age on most of the planet, thousands of tons of sulfuric gaz in the atmosphere etc….

If you have a chance to watch this story, it’s simply amazing.

Next time I have my babi guling in Danau Toba, I will look at the lake with different eyes!!!

Sampai jumpa

 

[Sanurian]

Hi Roy

Thankyou for reminding me about The Ring of Fire. I do already know that. Even as a kid I remember descriptions of Indonesia as a chain of constantly rattling pearls - this archipelago is a seismic nightmare and there's nothing humans can do about it. Just enjoy the ever-present danger and the concomitant beauty it creates.

In fact, there are several manifestations of that reality, not necessarily all of geological origin. For instance: eating too many chilis can result in a ring of fire (or should that be better described as an after-burner effect?). Exploding kreteks, especially for people with moustaches can start fires (maybe even burn the ring of your mouth off, even your whole head if it takes everybody by surprise). Never attempt to douse it with industrial-strength arak.

Believe it or not, I am not trying to be flippant about the dangers. The current volcanoes here that seem to be getting a bit grumpy are not things to gloss over lightly. No doubt many of us have seen early paintings of Bali with Gunung Agung portrayed as a perfectly pointed volcano. It certainly isn't like that these days as the top blew off in the mid-1960's "taking" a quarter of the island with it (mainly in east Bali - Karangasem). It's taken quite a few years for the affected areas to recover.

As far as I know, the world's biggest super-volcano is actually Yellowstone Park, in the USA. Another one is Toba in Sumatra. And everybody who's been to the Batur region in Bali should imagine how big the original volcano there was before it blew, creating one of the planet's largest calderas, a "new" active volcano inside with increasing numbers of craters. When I first came here, I think there were only two. It's up to four now. I imagine the original Mt Batur would make Mt Agung look like a pimple on an apple.

Food for thought.
8)

 

[Unique]

In 1999 –as a journalist –I had opportunity to visit Mt Merapi also to cover up a big event Borobudur International Festival in Magelang. There is a simple man who has responsibility to manage local heritage and Mt Merapi communities. His name is Mbah Maridjan, old man with huge capability to command and give sign to the local people if something happened apparently, when Merapi in a crisis (eruption). They believed with a myth that as long as Mbah Maridjan (aka Juru Kunci Mt Merapi) not commands them to move, they will keep stay there. Local people believe if Merapi really in dangers, they will see ‘a holly man’ who warning them to evacuate them self. Furthermore, many animals will move out and looking for a secure area. To know more about this man, please visit my blog but still in Bahasa language.

 

[Roy]

Phil, I think your concerns about current volcanic activity in Indonesia is warranted. In addition to all the attention currently being given to Gunung Merapi, Gunung Anak Krakatau in Sumatra is under intense scrutiny as is another volcano in eastern Java...I think it’s Gunung Kawah Ijen. Each of these other volcanoes have been showing recent activity similar to Merapi, but apparently not as intense.

I like, “a string of rattling pearls” much more than “the ring of fire” and I never heard that former metaphor before. It’s much more colorful, and at least recognizes Indonesia for what it really is...a string of pearls, albeit rattling away!

Metro TV reported this morning that the government is moving in tons of rice, flashlights and body bags into the area surrounding Merapi. Yes, they specifically mentioned body bags.

Unique, thanks for that most interesting story. What you discuss is at the heart of the difficulty getting local villagers to evacuate on a precautionary basis. I can’t recall all the specifics, but there was a major eruption of a volcano in the southern Philippines in the not too distant past where many villagers failed to heed mandatory evacuation orders. The population of one village hid in a cave, and all but one man and his son were killed.

 

[Roy]

Phil, ma'af, I forgot to "pay homage" to an excellent line in your last post which I found very funny. In fact, the morning after one of Dadong's meals, Eri often asks me, "ring of fire?"

In fact, there are several manifestations of that reality, not necessarily all of geological origin. For instance: eating too many chilis can result in a ring of fire (or should that be better described as an after-burner effect?).

 

[Sanurian]

Glad you liked the pearls metaphor, Roy. I agree with you that it sounds better (more "romantic"?) than Ring of Fire.

And "Unique": An interesting yarn regarding Mbah Maridjan and I have no doubt that many poorly educated Indonesians would believe what he says (to their peril). Several years ago there was a wedding party in Kaliurang (foothills of Gunung Merapi) and "official warnings" had been publicised for people to stay away because of grumblings in Merapi. They didn't heed the warnings and unfortunately all died (from gases, I think). I wonder what Mbah Maridjan said at the time?

Predictions of volcanic eruptions (and earthquakes as well) still seem to be as much art as science, or mysticism or whatever. Reflect upon what happened with Mount St Helens, for example. An irony there was that some years later, some of the same scientists got wiped out by an eruption in Japan. Like I said - predicting these events is far from an exact science. Listening to mumbo-jumbo doesn't work either. It's hard to tell whom to believe - personally, I'll still back the scientists.
:roll:

 

[Roy]

Phil, as you know, that is the scary reality of this all. Science can help to predict these events, and the Gods know the most devoted of these scientists work their hearts out to save lives, and to be accurate with their forecasts and predictions.

They are often found to be between a "rock and a hard place." They are damned if they react too precipitously, and damned if they missed the mark, resulting in total devastation. I wouldn't want their job for all the tea in China!

If I were living with my family close to Merapi, I would have already gotten us all the hell out of there. It could end up to be for nothing, but I will never argue with the saying, "better safe than sorry."

 

[ColinF]

Roy, Phil......take heart, doesn't it strike you that that "Ring of Fire" could be what saves Indonesia from utter destruction? It does, of course, form a very long dotted line right up through the whole of Indonesia and further........and surely we all know that when you see "tear along the dotted line" on so many forms etc it almost never actually does!!
Colin.

 

[Roy]

Colin, I don’t think either Phil or I are obsessing with fear or anticipation of what can, and one day will be, the ultimate conclusions of the many active volcanoes, part of the “string of rattling pearls” or “the ring of fire.”

No Colin, I don’t see any logic in your comment:

.take heart, doesn't it strike you that that "Ring of Fire" could be what saves Indonesia from utter destruction?

The two greatest natural disasters of all recorded history have occurred, oddly enough, from just one of the 15 thousand islands that make up present day Indonesia. This is the island of Sumatra. And those two events were firstly, the 1883 eruption of Krakataua, and the very recent, largest seismic event ever recorded earthquake in history that killed one quarter of a million people with its deadly tsunami.

Do I take heart in that? No, I don’t and further more, nor should anyone else.

 

[Sanurian]

Colin...what's this about:?

...doesn't it strike you that that "Ring of Fire" could be what saves Indonesia from utter destruction? It does, of course, form a very long dotted line right up through the whole of Indonesia and further...

I don't get your point exactly and comparing bits of perforated paper forms to dangerous strings of volcanoes bafffles me. An interesting idea, perhaps, but a bit out of the ball park, methinks.
You did also say:

...and surely we all know that when you see "tear along the dotted line" on so many forms etc it almost never actually does...

(My emphasis.) Hmmm. I can only hope you're right.

And Roy:
Two things.
With reference to:

If I were living with my family close to Merapi, I would have already gotten us all the hell out of there

I did exactly that about 4 years ago. I'm also glad that I finally managed to sell my two pieces of land over there, one of which was on the road to Kaliurang (Merapi foothills) and the other in Bantul (just south of Jogja proper). Experienced one notable earthquake (tremor?), which cracked some walls in my house - I did some rough calculations once based on previous Merapi activity and came to the conclusion that if the lava started in earnest, I might have enough time to drink one beer before omega. It wasn't long after that that we moved back to Bali.

The second thing relates to your comment:

...greatest natural disasters of all recorded history... the 1883 eruption of Krakataua...

I believe this is a popular misconception. In 1815, Gunung Tambora on the island of Sumbawa was the biggest volcanic explosion in 10,000 years. (150 times the size of Mt St Helens, roughly about 60,000 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs.) The blast and associated tsunamis took out about 100,000 people. It produced about 240 cubic kilometres of ash, dust, etc, and affected global climate for several years. Why many people seem to overlook Tambora is a mystery to me. Do a web-search on Tambora and see what you come up with. (And I'm not saying that Gunung Krakatau was exactly insignificant, either...let's just get the facts straight.)
:wink:

 

[drbruce]

Right, Phil, about Tambora. There are a lot of interesting little facts about that explosion. My social studies students did some presentations on it a few years ago. It was responsible for the Year Without a Summer in Europe. The northwest of the US was affected as well as Canada. Crop failures, starvation, etc. It has been said that the climate change in the US was one of the factors behind the westward movement at the time. The writing of Frankenstein has also been attributed to the effects of the Tambora eruption.

 

[Sanurian]

Thankyou drbruce. It's nice to know that there are people out there who are aware of the Tambora eruption.

The year 1816 was known as the year without summer. The colours of sunsets around the world were supposedly quite spectacular, influencing many painters. Crops world-wide failed. The potato famine in Ireland took out some 65,000 people, many from typhoid. In New England, it was called The Year Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death. It would be interesting to know what happened throughout Indonesia and on Sumbawa itself but I haven't found any material so far. Then again, maybe it's better I don't know.

 

[tintin]

Few (non-seismic) observations

- I am surprised that, except for sanurian and drbruce, all the other forumites, including expats, seemed to ignore Gunung Tambora eruption, which has been estimated to be more than twice as large as Gunung Krakatau eruption.

-

largest seismic event ever recorded earthquake

A seismic event is by definition an earthquake :shock:

The Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, Dec 26, 2004, was not the largest earthquake in recorded history ( 9.0, later upgraded to 9.1 and 9.3), but the second largest. The “prize” goes to the Great Chilean Earthquake, May 22, 1960, 9.5 (richter), and the longest (lasted between 500 and 600 sec.)
-
- Finally, Krakatau (or Krakatoa) is (was) located on Pulau Rakata, which is in Java, not Sumatra. :roll:

 

[Sanurian]

I do believe you're right, tintin. And thankyou for your input.

I just hope that more people understand the significance of the Tambora eruption, both physically and historically for the whole planet.
I get a bit tired of the Krakatau stuff, big and impressive as it was.

 

[tintin]

May I add the following remark about the measurement of the strength of earthquakes?

The Richter scale is a logarithmic scale. Therefore the difference between the strengths Great Chilean (9.5) and the Sumatra-Andaman (9.3, max) may seem a punny 0.2 units, but it means that the Great Chilean was 58% stronger than the Sumatra-Andaman!

 

[Roy]

For the record, Krakatau was, and anak Krakatau is, located 50 kilometers off the West Java Coast, and 40 Kilometers off the coast of Sumatra, clearly closer to Sumatra than West Java. :roll:

 

[tintin]

Roy writes:

For the record, Krakatau was, and anak Krakatau is, located 50 kilometers off the West Java Coast, and 40 Kilometers off the coast of Sumatra, clearly closer to Sumatra than West Java.

For the record, he is correct, but his numbers are wrong. A little research shows that Krakatau is almost equidistant from Sumatra and Java,

Krakatau is located at 6 09’ 12.19” S; 105 26’ 02.03 E.

The closest coast line in West Lampung is at 5 50’ 06.20” S; 105 36’ 49.29” E

And the closest point on West Java coast is located at 6 14’ 34.31” S; 105 49’ 27.91” E

Therefore, Krakatau is 40.1 +/- 0.1 km from West Lampung, and 44.1 +/- 0.1 km from West Java.

HOWEVER, Krakatau may be located about 4 kms closer to Sumatra, but everyone knows (at least from reading historical documents of the last eruption) that it is administratively located in Propinsi Jawa Barat, Kabupaten Banten, which extends from 104 48’ E to 108 48’ E Long, and 5 50’ S and 7 50’ S, and not in Propinsi Lampung.