Herd immunity in Bali

Tezza71

Yeah I follow that facebook page too mate. I agree that the cases seem to be falling at the moment but maybe best to wait until after the holiday break and see what happens then. I sincerely hope that there isn't a major upswing in the numbers.

mugwump

Your Halloween couldn’t have been that bad.

Markit

Maybe some good news?! https://thebalisun.com/covid-19-recovery-rate-outpacing-new-infection-rate-in-bali/

spicyayam

[QUOTE]I summise lack of exposure would proclude herd exposure in the villages for now, Urban areas down south maybe a different story? [/QUOTE] I know quite a few Balinese who work on cruise ships and in spas. They all came back home when the pandemic began. Some I know for sure didn't have any quarantine and went back to live with families in the villages around Lovina. There is a cold water spring pool near my house which seems busy now on weekends. I just hope we don't have another wave like what is happening in Europe now. Of course Europe is going into winter, which could be a factor for more cases.

JohnnyCool

mugwump wrote Your Halloween couldn’t have been that bad.

It was fine. Turned a pumpkin into soup. Didn't watch any horror movies, (unless Kris Kristofferson in [I]Disappearances [/I]counts). The worst horror stuff was news around the world. USA election bullshit, beheadings in France, total lock-down in England, Indonesian 'fatwa' on French products, Australian state borders fiasco, the " 'nine new Bali's' brain fart..." A Balinese woman gave me a few bottles of Strongbow Apple Cider (sweet version, 4%, made in Tangerang presumably under licence, like Indoenesian Heineken is made by Bintang). Looking forward to the assault of a raft of Xmas movies.

JohnnyCool

Maybe some good news?! https://thebalisun.com/covid-19-recovery-rate-outpacing-new-infection-rate-in-bali/

Maybe you're right. The Bali Sun is a 'fun' new source. Not sure which is funnier, it or Coconuts. I read one comment at the end of that news item:

"Ron Carter. The actual figure for covid cases is completely unknown. Head of the task force Dewa Made Indra is completely out of touch with reality."

Them's strong words. There are at least three "realities" in Bali. The seen, the unseen and the in-between. Hope he doesn't get into any trouble over one of them.

Markit

JohnnyCool wrote [I]Maybe[/I] you're right. The Bali Sun is a 'fun' new source. Not sure which is funnier, it or Coconuts.

Now days it really doesn't seem to matter where you get your "news" from they are all much of a mixture and all have their own axe to grind. With that in mind Bali Sun and/or Coconuts are as good or bad as all the rest.

JohnnyCool

Markit wrote Now days it really doesn't seem to matter where you get your "news" from they are all much of a mixture and all have their own axe to grind. With that in mind Bali Sun and/or Coconuts are as good or bad as all the rest.

I think "it matters" (foolishly). Many "news sources" these days regurgitate "fake news", "more fake news" and "funny fake news". Since a handful of multi- billionaires own the biggest ones, who knows what shit we've been fed over the years? Has it [I]always[/I] been like this? Perhaps. Will it end one day? I hope so, but not holding my breath. Should make us all wonder about what we [I]think[/I] we "know". o_O

Balifrog

JackStraw wrote and often left-wing) opinion to it

Hahaha, it never ceases to amaze me how some people (usually Yanks or Aussies) NEED to bring everything back to left / right. Coconuts and Bali Sun are good fun, and that's it.

JackStraw

Balifrog wrote Hahaha, it never ceases to amaze me how some people (usually Yanks or Aussies) NEED to bring everything back to left / right. Coconuts and Bali Sun are good fun, and that's it.

That's just the fact of life my friend. Bias and opinions are a spectrum and all media outlets lie somewhere on that spectrum. It's not a negative thing at all. It's completely ok to have a bias that leans one way or another. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

JackStraw

Markit wrote Now days it really doesn't seem to matter where you get your "news" from they are all much of a mixture and all have their own axe to grind. With that in mind Bali Sun and/or Coconuts are as good or bad as all the rest.

Coconuts is intolerable to me. It seems like the Editor-in-Chief spent a semester or two aboard in a western nation and now thinks he/she is the Indonesian version of The Guardian/CNN and it's his/her sole duty to open the minds of these "basic Indonesians" to the glorious ideals of western civilization. Every bule I know eats it right up too but it's bullshit. All Coconuts does is translate local news into English and then add their own (and often left-wing) opinion to it.

spicyayam

I check the graphs in the Bali Covid-19 Facebook group from time to time and, at least for now, the numbers are moving in the right direction. As far as I know, aside from Nyepi there has never been any significant lockdown in Bali, like what has been done in Australia. The main evidence of Covid that you can see here is that most tourist related businesses are closed. The rest of the places like in the cities, people are moving freely around. Is it possible Bali is building herd immunity? I hope people don't get complacent about it and continue to wear masks and so forth, but it would be nice to see the number of cases going down and down. I doubt though it would be able to eradicate it completely, at least until a vaccine comes along. [ATTACH type="full" alt="3393"]3393[/ATTACH]

Markit

JohnnyCool wrote I think "it matters" (foolishly). Many "news sources" these days regurgitate "fake news", "more fake news" and "funny fake news". Since a handful of multi- billionaires own the biggest ones, who knows what shit we've been fed over the years? Has it [I]always[/I] been like this? Perhaps. Will it end one day? I hope so, but not holding my breath. Should make us all wonder about what we [I]think[/I] we "know". o_O

Ok if you are gonna give your analysis of everyone elses choices in news sources lets hear yours ? I also listen to UnHerd a web based source that seems quite good, mixed with a liberal dosage of "Guardian" BS and a dose of salt...

matsaleh

My go-to for everyday reading is "The Conversation". Interesting and factual articles, without the click-bait headlines. From Media Bias/Fact Check website: Media Bias rating for The Conversation Maybe check the ratings of some other "news" outlets.

hca

If herd immunity works I wonder the lack of exposure to off island sources might allow it to slowly build up. Local data has shown a steady increase in local cases but I only hear of occasional cases in other villages about the place. Although with subdued village activity and masks up here village life goes on as normal. 2 fatal cases I directly know off had no infection to other household members, one the guy has been wasting away the last couple years, rarely leaves his village, has been frightened and reluctant to go for routine treatment in Singarala RSUD died "with" it and yet all the family test negative. Only village hearsay, thus more reliable than AU media, is that its financially benifical to call a death covid. So what to make of the data, definitely a different metric to urban areas in the south? Here financial damage is more the issue than virus you hear of people bankrupt not sick. I summise lack of exposure would proclude herd exposure in the villages for now, Urban areas down south maybe a different story? I cant comment on FB as anything FB is on the blocklist here but at risk of repeating someone elses previous post, and probably mentioned elsewhere these are the couple of local gov sites I use. https://pendataan.baliprov.go.id/ https://infocorona.baliprov.go.id/2020/04/23/update-penanggulangan-covid-19-di-provinsi-bali-kamis-23-april-2020/ This is Buleleng district breakdown data but I guess other provinces have similar pages http://infocovid19.bulelengkab.go.id/

JohnnyCool

I check the graphs in the Bali Covid-19 Facebook group from time to time and, at least for now, the numbers are moving in the right direction. As far as I know, aside from Nyepi there has never been any significant lockdown in Bali, like what has been done in Australia. The main evidence of Covid that you can see here is that most tourist related businesses are closed. The rest of the places like in the cities, people are moving freely around. Is it possible Bali is building herd immunity? I hope people don't get complacent about it and continue to wear masks and so forth, but it would be nice to see the number of cases going down and down. I doubt though it would be able to eradicate it completely, at least until a vaccine comes along. [ATTACH=full]3393[/ATTACH]

I think most (if not all of us), still don't understand the new Covid (including real experts and even governments). It's far too early to tell. Many people also don't really understand much about 'vaccines', and hope when one comes along that actually works, it'll be like a silver bullet. Graphs and numbers have their place, so long as they're from 'reliable sources' and showing relevant data. The pretty graph above looks like it's showing 'daily new positive cases' going down. What about death rates, hospitalizations, 'recoveries', etc? What did the 'Bali Department of Health' base the graph on? How much 'testing' was done, what 'tests', where, by whom, etc? 'Herd immunity' is also poorly understood. A vaccine could help, or, not by much. 'Natural herd immunity' would mean letting the virus infect a large percentage of the population (including letting many people die), and then hoping for the best. (It's not even known yet if those with the antibodies will stay 'immune', for how long, or even if they can be reinfected at a later stage?) What [SIZE=4]is[/SIZE] clear [SIZE=4]is[/SIZE] that nothing is clear. I suggest that those who would like to learn more about these issues read through some other sources rather than jumping to broad over-simplifications. Try the following one (I'm not saying it's the 'best'), but a reasonable start: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 I wish for all of us (everybody) to have a safe future.

Markit

JohnnyCool wrote ABC (Australia), BBC, Arirang (S Korea), The Japan Times, The Harvard Crimson, The Times of India, South China Morning Post, Deutsche Welle( DW - Germany), Tempo (Indonesia), Jakarta Post, Bali Discovery, thelocal.se (Sweden), pursuit.unimelb.edu.au (University of Melbourne), The Conversation (Australia), New Scientist, National Geographic, NASA, The Straits Times (Singapore), Bangkok Post, Phuket Times, Al Jazerra, The Simpsons, Gruen (Australia on advertising everywhere) and many others. :cool:

HOLY SHITCAKES! When do you find time to live?

Balifrog

Markit wrote HOLY SHITCAKES! When do you find time to live?

Was my thought also ! Hell, some of you old buggers like to complicate the end of your lives . I am 67, sure doing a (very) few things to keep the brain from going in sleep mode. The 2 main being a bit of stock market playing and geopolitics. Read a few papers, but most important is now to relax and enjoy the remaining days.

harryopal

I pretty much gave up beer after over indulging during football years and turned to wine. Drank a little beer in Kenya. Tusker, where the local habit was always to start off with two bottles of beer. Have recently returned to beer again having a Bintang at the beach after a swim. It is affordable and I find I prefer the Bintang Lemon if that is not a kind of heresy. What then do the cultivated palates of our beer connoisseurs make of Bintang?

Balifrog

What then do the cultivated palates of our beer connoisseurs make of Bintang?

I guess you have the answers here ? Specially in the comments section..... https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/502/1432/ https://www.ratebeer.com/Ratings/Beer/Beer-Ratings.asp?BeerID=7656 Personally I give it a 3 on a scale of 5.