Different perspectives

Markit

Sweden seems to represent the most civilized example for the world to follow at the moment - they had a high death rate initially due to not locking down (like UK initially wanted to do) but then the virus ragged through the senior homes. As it will in any country that has avoided it so far - it's only a matter of time.

SamD wrote I am of the opinion that lockdowns are the wrong approach. Everyone points to New Zealand and how successful their lockdown has proved. But it is only postponing the inevitable. Coronavirus will make its way there eventually and they will go through what every other community has gone through with this virus.

Any warning that consists of monetary concerns I discount out of hand - think way, way back to the 2008 financial world collapse where every country came up with a new acronym for "printing money" such as Quantitative Easing (QE). This was supposed to be the only chance as we (the banks really) teetered on the brink of disaster, because it would induce rampant inflation. Anyone in the class know how much inflation the printing of 12 trillion dollars brought? No? None, 0, zero, zip, nadda. So let the presses rip and give everyone a Guaranteed Income (GI - see Google) of $2000/month and I promise to do all I can to support the banks (not to forget brown girls and bars). So far here in Bali Rona has only had positive affects - we here in the east have never had so much delivered, really good, food and produce. Vegetables are cheaper delivered than from the local markets, bread in all the sorts you'd only get in Europe and cheese (oh blessed cheese) is expensive but I just got 1,7kilos of French Emmenthaler for IDR300k! Just bought 2 kilos of the best clams you can get outside of Rhode Island for IDR20k/kg. Def getting fatter and less hair but beer is still cold, small brown girls even warmer than before and apparently my wallet has lost none of its attraction. Cheers and live like it's your last day.

harryopal

The mortgage rot in Australia really took hold from about 1986 with negative gearing allowing property investors to gain major tax concessions so that the upper middle class seized the opportunity to invest in multiple properties. This demand coupled with a lack of supply saw housing costs rocket. The dream perhaps for most young couples to have their own house has led many young people to buy into the market with their financial situations on a knife edge. Unfortunately for many, home ownership only became achievable if both husband and wife worked to have enough cash flow to maintain the hugely stressful mortgage payments. If one of them lost a job their situation became impossible. Now with the economic impact of the Corona virus tens of thousands of families are faced with losing their homes and facing economic and emotional disaster. This of course is just one aspect of the ruinous impact of lock-downs. Not to say that governments have not been between a rock and a place. Not to have such lock-downs would open governments to allegations of neglect and lack of care about health issues. I suggest that any thoughts of economies quickly recovering is fatuous and wishful thinking. Even were there to be an effective vaccine available by next year this is unlikely to spare from us the calamitous, world wide financial wreckage from which it will take a decade or more to recover. It behoves us all to make a serious stocktake of our circumstances to be ready for difficult times ahead. On the brighter side, most of us will live through the crisis with perhaps more modest aspirations to wealth and material benefits. As long as I can watch the Aussie rules football on TV and swim and walk along the beach.... I am ready. Gird your loins and keep smiling.

harryopal

Markit wrote ...... Any warning that consists of monetary concerns I discount out of hand - think way, way back to the 2008 financial world collapse where every country came up with a new acronym for "printing money" such as Quantitative Easing (QE). This was supposed to be the only chance as we (the banks really) teetered on the brink of disaster, because it would induce rampant inflation. Anyone in the class know how much inflation the printing of 12 trillion dollars brought? No? None, 0, zero, zip, nadda. So let the presses rip and give everyone a Guaranteed Income (GI - see Google) of $2000/month and I promise to do all I can to support the banks (not to forget brown girls and bars). .....

But then, on the other hand Zimbabwe tried to print it's way out of difficulty and finished with $500 trillion dollar bank notes which would not buy a loaf of bread. Perhaps the answer if 42...as in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy with computers grinding away for years to find the answer to the question, "What is the meaning of life?" And finally came up with the answer..... 42.

Markit

harryopal wrote The mortgage rot in Australia really took hold from about 1986 with negative gearing allowing property investors to gain major tax concessions so that the upper middle class seized the opportunity to invest in multiple properties. This demand coupled with a lack of supply saw housing costs rocket. The dream perhaps for most young couples to have their own house has led many young people to buy into the market with their financial situations on a knife edge. Unfortunately for many, home ownership only became achievable if both husband and wife worked to have enough cash flow to maintain the hugely stressful mortgage payments. If one of them lost a job their situation became impossible. Now with the economic impact of the Corona virus tens of thousands of families are faced with losing their homes and facing economic and emotional disaster.

I've always thought that the housing boom in Oz is one of the most convincing arguments for a conspiracy you could find anywhere. Nobody can convincingly explain to me how sixth largest country in the world with the smallest population density can have anything like a housing shortage. Ok if nobody wants to build then that's one reason or you can't build because there's no building materials but THE MARKET controls all that with SUPPLY AND DEMAND, remember those? I've seen Oz houses and, don't get me wrong, they're nice but not $500,000 nice - they're just build out of fecking wood and surprisingly that does grow on trees. Friends moved to Mt. Morgan from Germany in the 80s and it was and still is a shit hole with no rain, no intelligent life, no culture, no good schools and lots of trailer trash living in 500 grand shanties. Go figure!

PERtoDPS

Markit wrote I've always thought that the housing boom in Oz is one of the most convincing arguments for a conspiracy you could find anywhere. Nobody can convincingly explain to me how sixth largest country in the world with the smallest population density can have anything like a housing shortage. Ok if nobody wants to build then that's one reason or you can't build because there's no building materials but THE MARKET controls all that with SUPPLY AND DEMAND, remember those? I've seen Oz houses and, don't get me wrong, they're nice but not $500,000 nice - they're just build out of fecking wood and surprisingly that does grow on trees. Friends moved to Mt. Morgan from Germany in the 80s and it was and still is a shit hole with no rain, no intelligent life, no culture, no good schools and lots of trailer trash living in 500 grand shanties. Go figure!

My old house that I'm still fighting my ex over the sale of in court now is valued at approx $500,000 it's a totally average brick house way out in a boring suburb that you need a car to have any type of life. No pool, small yard, main road behind it. She wanted new build I wanted some old Victorian thing in the city, she won. Where it's located it's 15 minute uber to the train ($20 ish), or you can bus it, but that's a major pain 10 mins to nearest bus stop. Then it's around 45 minutes from the train station in to the Perth CBD. This city spans for miles in all directions now, if it keeps going it'll become just hours of cities like California. I came to realise relationships are good for around 5-7 years for most people, of course some can make them work longer but how happy are those past those years? I think 5 years ish is when we go back to being our true self and stop putting on any type of "show" or "polished version" of ourselves. Passing 2 year mark with Indo mrs, still happy days so far! I will never ever buy a house on a 30 year payment plan with a girl again I tell you that! What stupid shit was I thinking?

PERtoDPS

Juggler wrote IMO due to domestic travel reopening and Java and Jakarta having many cases I think it is certain to increase the local cases in Bali... Victoria is stuffed and I think Bali is headed down the same path...Not a matter of if but when

I don't think Bali - Melbourne is a great comparison, remember Melbourne dips in to some very, very cold cold temperatures in winter (eg now), where Bali seems to sit between 27-31 c year round. My personal belief is also that the virus already did it's rounds in Bali Feb/Mar this year 2020.

Juggler

Hope you guys are right. I wish it was over or at least the borders where open. I think this extreme lock down is not the correct approach....

JackStraw

PERtoDPS wrote My old house that I'm still fighting my ex over the sale of in court now is valued at approx $500,000 it's a totally average brick house way out in a boring suburb that you need a car to have any type of life. No pool, small yard, main road behind it. She wanted new build I wanted some old Victorian thing in the city, she won. Where it's located it's 15 minute uber to the train ($20 ish), or you can bus it, but that's a major pain 10 mins to nearest bus stop. Then it's around 45 minutes from the train station in to the Perth CBD. This city spans for miles in all directions now, if it keeps going it'll become just hours of cities like California. I came to realise relationships are good for around 5-7 years for most people, of course some can make them work longer but how happy are those past those years? I think 5 years ish is when we go back to being our true self and stop putting on any type of "show" or "polished version" of ourselves. Passing 2 year mark with Indo mrs, still happy days so far! I will never ever buy a house on a 30 year payment plan with a girl again I tell you that! What stupid shit was I thinking?

Hmmm, not sure about that one mate. I know plenty of people 10, 20, 30 years into their marriage and still happy as clams. This goes for both bule/lokal marriages and bule/bule marriages. Of course, I've heard my fair share of horror stories and experienced some of my own but that's not to say a long, happy relationship is not impossible. Just takes a lot of work on both ends.

JackStraw

Juggler wrote Ours have just expired and we need to get to Bali by the 13th Sept. It just aint gonna happen. I feel Bali covid will increase dramtically in the next month or so. To get out of Oz you need to apply and that will just wont do as we need to back for xmas. So the $4k 14 day isolation just isnt worht it. I have asked my agent to get me a EPO and we will just have to start again in Feb if we can get back then.

Just out of curiosity, what makes you say COVID in Bali will increase dramatically in the next month or so? Bali was receiving daily flights from Wuhan up until early March and the "lockdown" here was a complete joke. In theory, all signs say Bali should be up to its eyeballs in dead corpses from COVID but I have not seen anything like that yet. So perhaps you could explain your logic on that one?

JackStraw

Hope you guys are right. I wish it was over or at least the borders where open. I think this extreme lock down is not the correct approach....

Yes, there is a strong economic argument against these harsh lockdowns. I found an interesting article outlining the dark side of the New Zealand lockdown, one that is universally regarded as a major success. However, the economic side-effects will be brutal https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/new-zealands-ongoing-self-siege-is

Juggler

JackStraw wrote Just out of curiosity, what makes you say COVID in Bali will increase dramatically in the next month or so? Bali was receiving daily flights from Wuhan up until early March and the "lockdown" here was a complete joke. In theory, all signs say Bali should be up to its eyeballs in dead corpses from COVID but I have not seen anything like that yet. So perhaps you could explain your logic on that one?

IMO due to domestic travel reopening and Java and Jakarta having many cases I think it is certain to increase the local cases in Bali... Victoria is stuffed and I think Bali is headed down the same path...Not a matter of if but when

JackStraw

Juggler wrote IMO due to domestic travel reopening and Java and Jakarta having many cases I think it is certain to increase the local cases in Bali... Victoria is stuffed and I think Bali is headed down the same path...Not a matter of if but when

The "when" already happened back in February if you ask me. I have a friend who volunteered at Sanglah Hospital about 3 weeks ago. He said there were about 5 people sick there with corona-like symptoms and his conversations with the doctors, this is the lowest its been since around February when they had an increased rate of hospitalizations due to respiratory like illness but still nothing that would overload the hospital. One more note. The doctors in the hospital did not require my friend to wear a mask. He was helping COVID-patients for 4 days in a row with no protective gear (doctors orders). It's been 3 weeks and he has yet to feel any symptoms. For a virus that is supposed to be so contagious, one would think the opposite would happen right?

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