Very good news, we've been watching with interest since we first heard back in September. At least our Travel Insurance was purchased way back when we bought our tickets so we are covered ... apparently.
Just did a quick search on other posts and found mention of masks ... found the P2 masks are equivalent here in OZ so I'll get a couple each to bring with us. Doesn't hurt to be a little prepared, just in case.
Just did a quick search on other posts and found mention of masks ... found the P2 masks are equivalent here in OZ so I'll get a couple each to bring with us. Doesn't hurt to be a little prepared, just in case.
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Great news? I am more on the suspicious side. Has the downgrade maybe something to do with Galungan?
I agree the frequency of quakes has gone down , but if you watch the seismic charts on magma there are still some heavy quakes , my exit plan is still in place should it go bang !
Personally, I think the downgrading has more to do with economic imperatives, rather than scientific results. This article, written by Rio Helmi, a long time resident of Bali, sums up the situation well, in my opinion. I have to copy/paste, as the article was posted on Facebook by Rio.
"Let’s not bury our heads in Mt. Agung’s sand
RIO HELMI·MONDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2017
As a number of people have contacted me and asked me to comment on the reducing of the Mt Agung alert status from 4 (Awas) down to 3 (Siaga) allow me to point out a couple of things which I have gleaned from long, serious conversations with my contacts at the PVMBG MT Agung observation post in Rendang, along with my own experience over the last weeks:
1. Just because it's been downgraded doesn't make Mt Agung "stable". We're still a long ways from that.
2. Mt Agung could still erupt after a short ramp up.
3. Mt Agung is what's called a "closed system", it doesn't display it's activity very clearly on the outside and is unpredictable. This last is further complicated by the fact that this is the first time it has gone active since it has been observed with instrumentation. Consequently the PVMBG are being cautious about making any "predictions"
4. Another reason they are being cautious is that Mt Agung has a very violent history. To put this into perspective it is one of 58 volcanos worldwide that has hit VEI 5 (Volcanic Explosivity Index). It is one of only 7 volcanoes worldwide that has hit VEI 5 consecutively, and fairly consistently, over the centuries. In the past, over the centuries, it has done a huge amount of damage.
5. The PVMBG volcanologists are not swayed by pressure from the government, nor from the tourist industry, etc. They make their decisions based on deliberating on their observations - seismic, thermal satellite imaging, etc etc etc. There are numerous factors, not just the number of earthquakes. Even though the number of quakes has dropped down drastically from a thousand plus a day, a couple of hundred a day is still far from stable. What they are seeing is a dispersion of seismic activity to other areas.
6. Mt Agung's ramp up time to an actual eruption has never been recorded instrumentally. Just because they have currently downgraded to 3 doesn't mean eveything is hunky-dory (my expression, not theirs). Read: It’s not that clear how much warning time they will have before an eruption.
7. There is of course a chance that the mountain will not erupt, but for the time being there is absolutely no guarantee. Let's celebrate if and when it really does go dormant again without erupting.
8. One statement I saw on line, referring to the “inability to predict exactly what and when Mt Agung will do”, was: “maybe due to the local Bali volcanologists being less prepared and experienced than those who work in Sumatra and Java”. I will try and contain myself by simply stating they rotate through out Indonesia, these are the same very experienced people, and they are well respected internationally, and it’s not a large community. As one visiting USGS scientist put it to one of my contacts there (and I paraphrase): ‘I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes. Merapi is easy. It’s predictable, it has been observed several times by instruments etc, and it is easy to deal with. This mountain has a very singular nature, is highly unpredictable and is particularly destructive. Merapi is volcanologist’s dream by comparison.’ To put this into perspective, Mt St Helens in the USA, another closed system, caught that country’s geologists by surprise when instead of blowing out through top of the dome that had formed, it blasted out to the side of the dome that had weakened. Volcanos are not neat. In this context, selfie-videos done by foreigners and locals alike "proving that Agung is safe" really not only display their ignorance (again, my opinion) but can be badly misleading.
9. The mistaken or ill-informed view that it is now 'under control' (as if one could say that about a volcano of Agung's nature!!!) has now resulted in many people going back into the innermost ( and still very dangerous) 6 km zone. This poses a real headache as these zones are not easy to effect a quick evacuation from , even if they have a couple of hours notice. The idea that modern communication and transportation means easy and swift evacuation for a completely untrained, unpreprared populace through what is essentially a hazardous evac route is ensured, is, sadly quite misguided. Over the last weeks I have discovered one ideal evacuation route (using well established and clear standards which I have had explained to me by experts). That's one in a 360 degree circumference that includes the homes of around 45,000 people. For those not on that spur of Mt Agung, they would have to get there by driving around and over various potential obstacles (the likely course of pyroclastic flows etc.). I’m hoping we’ll find others.
10. For those who think that the 22nd of September evacuation was well organized, please talk to the people who were stuck in a 6 hour traffic jam on the road, and those who ended up sleeping by the side of the road. This and other responses necessary by the way, are not the responsibility of the volcanologists, they are responsible for monitoring and reporting on Mt Agung’s status to the authorities who then are responsible for responding as necessary. This should be clear but for some reason it isn’t to some people.
11. There is major work ahead. The mistaken view that all is well will likely lead to a drop in interest in supporting and funding efforts to provide for the remaining evacuees, to continue important volcano/disaster education, and training, to provide alternative economic activity that can be undertaken both at home or in evacuation. Internally Displaced Persons do not have it easy – in the event of an eruption, in this (and other aspects) Bali is woefully unprepared.
12. We still have time, how much we don’t know. But we need to use this window efficiently and intelligently to improve our performance in reducing potential casualties and making sure that IDPs can be reasonably comfortable and continue on with their lives during the time they have to be away from their homes - whether the mountain erupts or not. Please let’s not waste this window by putting our heads in the sand."
"Let’s not bury our heads in Mt. Agung’s sand
RIO HELMI·MONDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2017
As a number of people have contacted me and asked me to comment on the reducing of the Mt Agung alert status from 4 (Awas) down to 3 (Siaga) allow me to point out a couple of things which I have gleaned from long, serious conversations with my contacts at the PVMBG MT Agung observation post in Rendang, along with my own experience over the last weeks:
1. Just because it's been downgraded doesn't make Mt Agung "stable". We're still a long ways from that.
2. Mt Agung could still erupt after a short ramp up.
3. Mt Agung is what's called a "closed system", it doesn't display it's activity very clearly on the outside and is unpredictable. This last is further complicated by the fact that this is the first time it has gone active since it has been observed with instrumentation. Consequently the PVMBG are being cautious about making any "predictions"
4. Another reason they are being cautious is that Mt Agung has a very violent history. To put this into perspective it is one of 58 volcanos worldwide that has hit VEI 5 (Volcanic Explosivity Index). It is one of only 7 volcanoes worldwide that has hit VEI 5 consecutively, and fairly consistently, over the centuries. In the past, over the centuries, it has done a huge amount of damage.
5. The PVMBG volcanologists are not swayed by pressure from the government, nor from the tourist industry, etc. They make their decisions based on deliberating on their observations - seismic, thermal satellite imaging, etc etc etc. There are numerous factors, not just the number of earthquakes. Even though the number of quakes has dropped down drastically from a thousand plus a day, a couple of hundred a day is still far from stable. What they are seeing is a dispersion of seismic activity to other areas.
6. Mt Agung's ramp up time to an actual eruption has never been recorded instrumentally. Just because they have currently downgraded to 3 doesn't mean eveything is hunky-dory (my expression, not theirs). Read: It’s not that clear how much warning time they will have before an eruption.
7. There is of course a chance that the mountain will not erupt, but for the time being there is absolutely no guarantee. Let's celebrate if and when it really does go dormant again without erupting.
8. One statement I saw on line, referring to the “inability to predict exactly what and when Mt Agung will do”, was: “maybe due to the local Bali volcanologists being less prepared and experienced than those who work in Sumatra and Java”. I will try and contain myself by simply stating they rotate through out Indonesia, these are the same very experienced people, and they are well respected internationally, and it’s not a large community. As one visiting USGS scientist put it to one of my contacts there (and I paraphrase): ‘I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes. Merapi is easy. It’s predictable, it has been observed several times by instruments etc, and it is easy to deal with. This mountain has a very singular nature, is highly unpredictable and is particularly destructive. Merapi is volcanologist’s dream by comparison.’ To put this into perspective, Mt St Helens in the USA, another closed system, caught that country’s geologists by surprise when instead of blowing out through top of the dome that had formed, it blasted out to the side of the dome that had weakened. Volcanos are not neat. In this context, selfie-videos done by foreigners and locals alike "proving that Agung is safe" really not only display their ignorance (again, my opinion) but can be badly misleading.
9. The mistaken or ill-informed view that it is now 'under control' (as if one could say that about a volcano of Agung's nature!!!) has now resulted in many people going back into the innermost ( and still very dangerous) 6 km zone. This poses a real headache as these zones are not easy to effect a quick evacuation from , even if they have a couple of hours notice. The idea that modern communication and transportation means easy and swift evacuation for a completely untrained, unpreprared populace through what is essentially a hazardous evac route is ensured, is, sadly quite misguided. Over the last weeks I have discovered one ideal evacuation route (using well established and clear standards which I have had explained to me by experts). That's one in a 360 degree circumference that includes the homes of around 45,000 people. For those not on that spur of Mt Agung, they would have to get there by driving around and over various potential obstacles (the likely course of pyroclastic flows etc.). I’m hoping we’ll find others.
10. For those who think that the 22nd of September evacuation was well organized, please talk to the people who were stuck in a 6 hour traffic jam on the road, and those who ended up sleeping by the side of the road. This and other responses necessary by the way, are not the responsibility of the volcanologists, they are responsible for monitoring and reporting on Mt Agung’s status to the authorities who then are responsible for responding as necessary. This should be clear but for some reason it isn’t to some people.
11. There is major work ahead. The mistaken view that all is well will likely lead to a drop in interest in supporting and funding efforts to provide for the remaining evacuees, to continue important volcano/disaster education, and training, to provide alternative economic activity that can be undertaken both at home or in evacuation. Internally Displaced Persons do not have it easy – in the event of an eruption, in this (and other aspects) Bali is woefully unprepared.
12. We still have time, how much we don’t know. But we need to use this window efficiently and intelligently to improve our performance in reducing potential casualties and making sure that IDPs can be reasonably comfortable and continue on with their lives during the time they have to be away from their homes - whether the mountain erupts or not. Please let’s not waste this window by putting our heads in the sand."
Hmmm, thank you ... very interesting reading and yes I had also had the sneaking suspicion that the downgrade was either economic or based on upcoming ceremonies.
Did anyone else watch the National Geographic documentary on the sciences in Japan looking at tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanoes? What was abundantly clear is that billions of dollars have been spent and we are little the wiser. It seems that all the theories developed to the point of the last major tsunami showed that all their theories and modelling were totally wrong. It seems a bit like using a stethoscope to listen to someone's stomach after a curry dinner and trying to predict which part of the digestive system and what kind or gurgle will happen next.