IDR 14,600 today 15,000 When?

[Markit]

About a year ago I said I'd eat my sandal if the Rupe didn't hit 15,000 by Xmas. Luckily I didn't say which Xmas.

Any ideas when or if?

How will that affect our lives here?

Will the locals eat Bule when rice hits 20K/kilo? Is it even tied to the exchange rate?

What's gonna fecking happen!?

 

[davita]

Rice in Indonesia is subsidized by the State Agency called Bulog. The rice is called 'beras sejahtera'...prosperous rice Ehm! but, due to El Nino, they are already predicting a shortfall..this means the government will use State money to purchase more...mainly from Thailand.
Bulog raises issue of possible subsidized rice shortage next year | The Jakarta Post
Interestingly, just last Friday Morgan Stanley wrote an article saying that the Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupiah are the best emerging-market currencies to buy as they've oversold. They say that Malaysian is the cheapest although they are slightly troubled by their latest political problems and Indonesia second. Investors will be rewarded to take exposurea....so says their money manager.
I've personally hedged by buying Rp this week and get over 7% in FD but the RI gov't takes 20% of the interest...probably to buy that subsidized rice.
I'm OK with that so long as they don't eat me...old meat and not very tasty anyway...:cupcake:

 

[Markit]

And you're usually full of **** too... :icon_e_biggrin:

 

[davita]

And you're usually full of **** too... :icon_e_biggrin:

I take it '****' means WITS.....or DEFT

You are so kind and benelovent with your praise...I'm blushing.::icon_redface:

 

[SHoggard]

About a year ago I said I'd eat my sandal if the Rupe didn't hit 15,000 by Xmas. Luckily I didn't say which Xmas.

Any ideas when or if?

How will that affect our lives here?

Will the locals eat Bule when rice hits 20K/kilo? Is it even tied to the exchange rate?

What's gonna fecking happen!?

I distinctly remember it was shorts you were going to eat!
& here's a gratuitous pic of a fish eating a cat's ear.. I think :cat:

 

[Nydave]

After Markit asked the original question ,, I had a conversation with my wife about what happened back in the later 90`s when the Rp hit rock bottom,

She remembers it clearly,although she is from Surabaya at that time she was visiting her Grandma in Surakarta and ended up being stuck there for several weeks,

She clearly remembers troops fully armed in big numbers patrolling the streets as the police went into hiding,this only happened after gangs of people went on a rampage of looting businesses and in many cases they actually burned down several stores after they had emptied the stores of all of the inventory first,tv and electronics stores,motor cycle stores,jewelry stores to mention just a few,,

The military enforced a curfew between certain hours and this remained in place I guess for a couple of weeks until things settled down,,

She said that all transportation between cities wasn't allowed ,not sure if that included air travel,

She was amazed that on her return to Surabaya that her family didn't know anything about what was going on in other parts of the country,because the media was also blocked from reporting such things,Surabaya had no such problems so to them everything was pretty normal,

Eventually it did become public that similar lootings and burnings of businesses occurred in some areas of Jakarta also as well as in some other parts of the country,

She has no idea if anything happened in Bali,

She did say that most of the lootings and burnings seemed to be focused on Chinese owned businesses,

I doubt that the number of foreigners living in Bali back then would be anything like the numbers of today or if anything happened to them,

Its impossible to say what would or could happen if the Rp keeps sinking and prices keep rising ,as for myself as a foreigner I am always aware that although im just a regular guy there are those who think because im a white westerner in their eyes im a rich guy,no matter what I say or do that is their belief,and nothing will change what they believe,

Sure its great for us guys getting the big amounts of Rp for our $$,,but it could be a bad thing for us in the long run,,bad in what ways I don't know,but lets hope we don't ever have to experience anything,

Just my thoughts,,

 

[Steve Rossell]

I remember those days nydave and it seemed that the further north in the archipelago, the greater the targeting of indochinese was. Peoples frustration and misguided perceptions.
I never heard of violence in Bali during that period and from a western persons perspective the average Balinese person are almost impossible to enrage...almost. But if that switch is finally flicked, then look out. Anyone remember the death toll from the 60's? But I didn't come here to live in fear and I'm not worried about possible problems. If they happen they'll happen and then I'll deal with the situation not fretting on a maybe.

 

[Markit]

My question about being eaten was facetious and I do not seriously expect any widespread riots or unrest due to a singing Rupiah. What does interest me and provoked my question was what today's Indonesia will do differently than the one back in 98? I wasn't here then unfortunately.

It appears to me that there is very little influence on the average Indonesian with respect to the changing fortunes of their money. It affects the upper and rapacious classes more than it does the lower ones I suggest.

There are things going on here that aren't quite as "simple" as many of us would believe.

For instance I personally know of a wealthy Chinese Indonesian that was very active in mine ownership here but was recently driven out of the business by the government's change of direction with respect to the export of commodities (in his case coal) towards emphasizing finished products. He is now laughing all the way to the bank as he was able to sell off his entire holding before the commodities markets crashed. I got the firm felling that this was not chance.

He wasn't alone in his "luck".

Speaking of luck, and it being my thread, I just learned of the sad and untimely death of a lady of the night that a drunken friend had purchased for my pleasure several years ago. She died of AIDS and I was even drunker than my friend - impotence isn't always a bad thing :icon_wink:

 

[Normy]

I recall in the late 90's a large super market on the bypass road in Sanur was burnt out. I was told it was Chinese/Indonesian owned

 

[sherm]

Never let the little head do the thinking.

 

[Markit]

I recall in the late 90's a large super market on the bypass road in Sanur was burnt out. I was told it was Chinese/Indonesian owned

I think you'll find that most large businesses here are Chinese owned. Perhaps that's why they are so envied and disliked and often referred to as "the Jews of Asia". In fact I find them to be excellent business men and if I can't find something I'm looking for I just go to the Chinese run businesses and 9 times out of 10, they have it.

Never let the little head do the thinking.

As with most good advice, in the presence of lashings of Bintang, immediately ignored.

 

[SHoggard]

@ NYDave: I remember those days - but don't see a comparison.

In the Asian Financial Crisis all the ASEAN currencies all fell through the floor in a single day: Thai baht by 40.2%, Malaysian ringgit by 39%, Indonesian rupiah by 83.2%, Philippine peso by 37.4% - speculators mad a killing.
Singapore spent wildly propping up its $ & ended the day 1¢ up on the US$... on the evening news that night 0 after the markets closed - the PM went on tv and announced that S'pore had set up a fund of $20billion (thereabouts) to fight tomorrow's currency battle and a similar amount in a floating fund that ASEAN neighbours could fall back on to fight their battle (ie: don't ferkin mess with us, we have enough to squash you and spare cash to help our friends).

But I digress... the upshot was a nassive price rise sparking a 'revolution' that toppled Sukharto and his cronies (TNI central command apparently declared itself neutral). In the days & weeks that followed there was something of a civil war: 'dark forces' were suggested to be behind the riots - Islamists &/or 'old-guard' looking to reinstate Suharto, or Tommy looking to fill the vacuum.

The Chinese were targeted in Java, as Market rightly suggests, because they appeared to have all the money, Salim's (Lim Sa Lim) house got burned out along with many of his businesses - rumor had it that he relocated to Singapore & commuted to Jakarta daily by private jet - others were not so lucky the anti-Chinese sentement spread to the little corner toko.

An apartment in my block in Singapore was sold to a nice middle-class family; Indonesian Chinese 'christian' (key word also) they wouldn't talk about their problems, but were very clearly relieved to be out & somewhere safe.
& just last week in Bulukumba, S Sulawesi, I had lunch with a successful Chinese businessman... he happened to mention his sister lives quite near me in S'pore - she moved there around that time also - so the middle class were bailing out in significant numbers.

There were also pitched battles between Christian & Muslim tribes (non Chinese) in Mulukas, I think.

So at that time Indonesia had just got rid of a dictator, was struggling to find an alternative, democracy was a tentative concept.

Sure the currency may have been the trigger... but since '97/98 Indonesian economy has been internally focused with not much overseas debt so who cares if the currency falls, as long as the price of rice remains stable

 

[davita]

The Indonesian Rupiah averaged 8268.17 from 1991 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 16650 in June of 1998 and a record low of 888.11 in November of 2010.

If the RI government could convince Indonesians who stash cash in foreign banks to re-invest in RI I'm sure the Foreign Exchange Reserves would rise dramatically and support the Rupiah.

Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves | 2000-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

 

[Jo.Silversmith]

I heard 16k somewhere

 

[modelt1826]

Davita investing in Indonesia at the moment would be like giving a live gun to a toddler eventually someone will get hurt. The goverment dont seem to have any firm policies look at how many turn arounds there have been. Why would anyone invest in a skipper less boat. The other problem is extremists who are a very small minority but at the moment convince the goverment what to do. There is a problem in Aceh at the moment where churches are being razed to the ground with definitely local goverment support and police support. The excuse they use is the Church has not got IMB permit how many Masjid fall into this category? A lot of money is held by the Chinese Christian community and with the churches being burnt and destroyed when will it be businesses and houses. I remember being in Jakarta in 1996 and the Dollar Rp rate was 2400, i was also there in 1997 and 1998 and ther were many businesses and housing estates through out Java burnt out all Chinese Christian.