davita

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Mar 13, 2012
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Breaking News....big earthquake somewhere in Moluccas...possible tsunami! May be too far from Bali... but best to warn everyone on the north shoreline
 
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paulseawind

Guest
Breaking News....big earthquake somewhere in Moluccas...possible tsunami! May be too far from Bali... but best to warn everyone on the north shoreline

Thanks for the Early Warning

As of tonight (Saturday 15 Nov 8pm local time) nothing yet but I did feel a single tremor around 2am last night but I feel those from time to time and wonder how 'significant' they are

The last time my local area (Seririt and surrounds) had a significant earth tremor, some houses came down and 2 or 3 people died
That was last year I think, if not, early this year
I felt them around 8:30am that day and discussed it with a friend later and we agreed that was it

I had been wondering lately about tsunamis
I once met a woman (here in North Bali) whose husband is one of those underwater geologists (I forget the correct name for his profession)
I emailed a report and asked her to check with hubbeee about all that
His response was, yes there will be a tsunami in North Bali but it might be in 150 million years time, although they are not quite sure
He added the south of Bali was far more prone to such an event, and they are also not so sure as to when
 

davita

Well-Known Member
Mar 13, 2012
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I once met a woman (here in North Bali) whose husband is one of those underwater geologists (I forget the correct name for his profession)
I emailed a report and asked her to check with hubbeee about all that
His response was, yes there will be a tsunami in North Bali but it might be in 150 million years time, although they are not quite sure
He added the south of Bali was far more prone to such an event, and they are also not so sure as to when

Wow, I'm really, really profoundly interested in this expert information from your north Bali women's husband who was an underwater geologist. You say he responded that a tsunami might occur in 150 million years..... that is precision indeed, and, 'not really sure', just adds strawberries to my icecream!
 
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paulseawind

Guest
Sad but true
That's what he said

There aren't many 'exact sciences' around

The underwater geologists can report on existing data but not accurately predict the future
They would need some fairly sophisticated modelling software to be able to make accurate predictions and I don't think mankind has quite yet got that mastered

Not even the meteorologists can 'predict' (really it is called forecasting by them) any further out than a few days, and they can 'do that' mostly because weather has a tendency to trend with the same weather lasting a few days e.g. Dry Season in the Tropics
They can also get it wrong
 

davita

Well-Known Member
Mar 13, 2012
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Actually all sciences are exact, otherwise they are called superstitions.

Exactly (pun intended).

Even if Pswd's geologist friend erred by 1%......that would give us a window of 1.5 million years to prepare...can't ask for more exactness than that.:icon_question:

WTF...do people get paid for this science?
 
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paulseawind

Guest
Actually all sciences are exact, otherwise they are called superstitions.

Nope
Tidak

What about the Science of Behaviour
Just limiting the scope to human children from the ages of 3 to 15 makes it a broad science and one which is impossible to fully document, because it is not exact

It's easy to 'Sunday Armchair' a few personal theories but the reality extends in to Monday, Tuesday, etc
The question doesn't go away
 
Aug 31, 2014
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Aberdeen/Singapore
The day mankind can precisely and accurately predict the vagaries of the planet and Mother Earth's often fickle moods will never ever happen.

As part of a standby 'Response Team' we get multiple alerts every day that are automatically triggered by seismic activity monitoring devices deployed worldwide. Most are random belches and farts from the bowels of the Earth and usually turn up where expected, but at least once a week activity turns up in either new locations, or areas classed as 'low risk'. So I guess the mantra is 'expect the unexpected' at all times.

Subsea geology experts are usually classed as 'Marine Geophysicists' Those that probe, study, monitor and explore the seabed and the strata below it, they often have a side order qualification in Seismology as well, or to quote my learned mentor 'ROV Rock Doctors'
 

ronb

Well-Known Member
Aug 14, 2007
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Ubud, Bali
...............

The last time my local area (Seririt and surrounds) had a significant earth tremor, some houses came down and 2 or 3 people died
That was last year I think, if not, early this year
I felt them around 8:30am that day and discussed it with a friend later and we agreed that was it
..............

The Jakarta Post had an item about the recent earthquake that I think you refer to, they say it was a 3.6 and there were no deaths.
Seririt residents flee quake | The Jakarta Post

As far as I can find, the last earthquake causing multiple deaths in Bali was a 5.5, and it was under the sea not far from Seririt in 1976. The Singapore Armed Forces web-site has an account because they responded with medical relief. You can see it at
Earthquake, Bali, 1976

I have talked to a guy in Kaliasem who parents lives near Seririt, and he was born the same day as the earthquake - an interesting start to life.
 
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paulseawind

Guest
The Jakarta Post had an item about the recent earthquake that I think you refer to, they say it was a 3.6 and there were no deaths.
Seririt residents flee quake | The Jakarta Post

Thanks Ron
I will ask my contact again about this - April 2012 does not ring a bell - it seems too long ago
The damage was actually in Bubunan and a neighbouring desa (as I recall) which is the desa immediately south of Seririt

Odd that there was so much damage there (buildings knocked over) and I hardly felt it less than 3kms away as the crow flies
It certainly spooked the locals
But I did find this:

Explore Bubunan, Indonesia (general) , Indonesia (populated place) Information, Weather, Photos, Videos, Animals, Nature, Wildlife, Maps, Hazards - Chinci

"Bubunan can have destructive (viii) earthquakes (on average one every 50 years), with occurances at >7 Richter. When a strong earthquake occurs, damage will be slight in specially designed structures but considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Heavy furniture is moved. Poorly built structures will be demolished. There is a medium-low occurence of periods with extreme drought. There is a low chance of cyclones hitting Bubunan."

One question I have is about a 'tornado' (I use that term because noting else to choose) - seeing as you can find information
It was around or on 19 Feb 2012 and it lashed the north coast - and another big storm less than half the intensity came by a few days later
Do you remember that?
I was in it
I had just got my dogs on the Friday 15th and I remember locking them in the centre of the house mainly to control their whereabouts and to put a layer between them and the storm for their safety
I was in the sea end of the house looking out at this huge storm
About half an hour before that I was happily emailing a friend saying there's a beautiful tropical storm headed my way
I love those storms
Well, it developed into what I'd loosely describe as a Cat 2 easy
I estimated the winds at 100-120 knots
I lost a few trees incl a big mango and so on
Anyhow, I have not been able to find one piece of journalism or even anything on it
Where do you think I might look for that?
It was the biggest storm in living memory and, oddly enough, not everyone was 'hit'
I had chairs blown back the length pf the house and cushions a lot further
It lasted approx 8 minutes
It was the biggest blow I have ever felt
But, nothing on it
I'd love the see the equiv of Bureau of Meteorology info on it
Any ideas where that info might be located?
 

ronb

Well-Known Member
Aug 14, 2007
2,241
56
48
Ubud, Bali
.............
I will ask my contact again about this - April 2012 does not ring a bell - it seems too long ago
The damage was actually in Bubunan and a neighbouring desa (as I recall) which is the desa immediately south of Seririt
...............

That Jakarta Post item is April 2014.
 
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paulseawind

Guest
Thanks Ron

Sorry for my error(s)
I will abandon this because I also got some input that 'near Munduk' also was involved