Different perspectives

spicyayam

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Jan 12, 2009
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As Melbourne goes into 4-stage lockdowns, Bali is opening up to domestic tourists. No one can really say which one is the right approach. There is always going to be a need to balance lockdowns which work but are not sustainable and having some kind of economy.

This is from the Eureka report:

Morgan Stanley’s analysts explained that 55% of respondents with a mortgage had received some form of income support from the Government in the past six months.
The other thing that stood out was that 15% of those receiving support are on JobSeeker, which is the dole.

Presumably they weren’t on the dole before the pandemic, since they have a mortgage, and you couldn’t service a mortgage on $40 a day, but they would be struggling now even though the coronavirus supplement has bumped up the amount to $557.85 per week. But a lot of them must be making the repayments since only 8% are on mortgage holidays from the bank.
That JobSeeker amount is due to go back to the old figure of $282.85 a week, or $40 a day, in January, after an intermediate step down in September to $407.85.

Those people, plus all the others relying on income support, will have to get a job by March next year or default on their mortgages. And it can’t be a couple of shifts a week making coffee or entering data from home, which would see them back in the “employed” column of the ABS labour force data.

There are 6 million mortgages in Australia; 55% of that number is 3.3 million. The average mortgage is $467,700.

Let’s assume, conservatively, that the mortgages of these people are below average – say, $300,000. And let’s also assume that three-quarters of them do get a decent job in time for the income support to run out.

That leaves 825,000 mortgagors going on the dole, which by then will be back to $282.85 a week and definitely not enough to meet mortgage repayments.
That number of mortgagors multiplied by $300,000 is $247.5 billion in loans. The total capital of the big four banks is $257 billion.
 

JackStraw

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Mar 14, 2017
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Yes. It's a very interesting approach indeed. I wish all my Australian friends well. Just out of curiosity, how does this lockdown now compare to the one you guys had during the Swine Flu? It hit you guys pretty bad according to the statistics I pulled up.

Australia had 37,537 confirmed cases of H1N1 Influenza 2009 (Human Swine Influenza) and 191 deaths reported by Department of Health[1] but only 77 deaths reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.[9] The actual numbers are much larger, as only serious cases warranted being tested and treated at the time. Suspected cases have not been reported by the Department of Health and Ageing since 18 May 2009 because they were changing too quickly to report.[10] Sources say that as many as 1600 Australians may have actually died as a result of this virus.

Compare that to the roughly 20,000 cases and 208 deaths of corona virus so far, I imagine the lockdown was much worse for the Swine Flu. What was it like back then? Similar restrictions or worse than today?
 
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PERtoDPS

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Yes. It's a very interesting approach indeed. I wish all my Australian friends well. Just out of curiosity, how does this lockdown now compare to the one you guys had during the Swine Flu? It hit you guys pretty bad according to the statistics I pulled up.

Australia had 37,537 confirmed cases of H1N1 Influenza 2009 (Human Swine Influenza) and 191 deaths reported by Department of Health[1] but only 77 deaths reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.[9] The actual numbers are much larger, as only serious cases warranted being tested and treated at the time. Suspected cases have not been reported by the Department of Health and Ageing since 18 May 2009 because they were changing too quickly to report.[10] Sources say that as many as 1600 Australians may have actually died as a result of this virus.

Compare that to the roughly 20,000 cases and 208 deaths of corona virus so far, I imagine the lockdown was much worse for the Swine Flu. What was it like back then? Similar restrictions or worse than today?

This is the harshest lockdown and first time in Australian history to this degree, swine flu, bird flu weren't locked down this hard, dole didn't increase even temporarily and it wasn't so constant in the media either, don't get me wrong it was on the evening news, but it wasn't everytime I turn on a news station it's all I hear about. Last night I was watching Sky news and there was a constant countdown timer to Vic lockdown and it showed the empty streets of the CBD. I don't even watch much news anymore it's too depressing for even my bright personality these days. Still enough to keep informed. I switched to a Los Angeles based station for an hour and they had corona numbers hugely inflate also, but it was maybe 20% of the hour bulletin.

My job went, in process to finally apply for something new now. My store temporarily closed due to COVIT when it reopened it could offer me about 5-10 hours a week, so I had to quit.

Relationship and partner both in Bali pending on "hold" since March. But without the income support I'd be screwed in Bali or borrowed heavily to sustain myself there, plus likely be having visa issues by now. Hope to be back soon. I'm not a fan of putting the whole world on hold so many small-medium business in Perth closed over this already.
 
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SamD

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I am of the opinion that lockdowns are the wrong approach. Everyone points to New Zealand and how successful their lockdown has proved. But it is only postponing the inevitable. Coronavirus will make its way there eventually and they will go through what every other community has gone through with this virus. The economic cost of the lockdowns has been catastrophic. The social cost is starting to become clear now. More kids have died in the US due to suicide during the pandemic than died from Coronavirus. I believe countries like Indonesia who did not impose lockdowns will fare much better in the coming years than countries like the USA, UK Australia etc. who committed economic suicide. And China is waiting in the wings to reap the harvest of the chaos they sowed.
 

JackStraw

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I am of the opinion that lockdowns are the wrong approach. Everyone points to New Zealand and how successful their lockdown has proved. But it is only postponing the inevitable. Coronavirus will make its way there eventually and they will go through what every other community has gone through with this virus. The economic cost of the lockdowns has been catastrophic. The social cost is starting to become clear now. More kids have died in the US due to suicide during the pandemic than died from Coronavirus. I believe countries like Indonesia who did not impose lockdowns will fare much better in the coming years than countries like the USA, UK Australia etc. who committed economic suicide. And China is waiting in the wings to reap the harvest of the chaos they sowed.

That's a very good point thanks for sharing. Another thing I was thinking about is the long term impact. With gyms shut down and people losing their jobs, surely that means they cannot afford to eat as healthy anymore or exercise as much. This will lead to many health problems down the road and potentially, many more deaths than the actual virus would cause if we just let it runs its course without shutting down the economy. Interesting things to think about
 
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SamD

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Before they closed the beaches I used to run 3 or 4 times a week. I tried running on the roads but didn't like it or feel comfortable. So I stopped running. I started running again when the beaches opened but maybe overdid it. Now my knee is f*cked and I can't seem to get it right. Not life threatening but I am convinced if the beaches hadn't been closed I would be doing my 8k runs still today. I'm not of an age where recovery happens quickly. I needed consistency and that was taken away from me. An insignificant anecdotal story but for me personally it is a big deal. The lack of second order thinking in decision making is something that policy makers need to address. But they won't because unfortunately they are thick as shit.
 
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spicyayam

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As much as the WHO has lost most of its credibility, I saw an interview with one of their staff and he also said lockdowns are wrong and not sustainable.

I see some restaurants opening up in Lovina and they seem a little crowded, but we are just staying home for now. My wife had a client who initially tested positive with the rapid test and was later found negative. She was fortunately got a negative from the rapid test.

My son's school has been making YT videos for lessons and apparently they will have a Zoom meeting soon. The teachers aren't very technologically advanced so it is better than nothing for now. It's not a great situation, but I have kind of resigned myself to feeling it will be this way for at least the rest of the year.
 
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PERtoDPS

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Everyone I know has definitely packed on weight, it was like a party at first and a nice change from always working but I totally hear you guys, definitely feeling less healthy over here.
 

Fred2

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Tomorrow I will know what impact it will have to my job in Melbourne, work has not changed so far. My biggest problem is that my Kitap in due in October, was thinking of trying to get to Indonesia now.
 

SamD

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As much as the WHO has lost most of its credibility, I saw an interview with one of their staff and he also said lockdowns are wrong and not sustainable.

I see some restaurants opening up in Lovina and they seem a little crowded, but we are just staying home for now. My wife had a client who initially tested positive with the rapid test and was later found negative. She was fortunately got a negative from the rapid test.

My son's school has been making YT videos for lessons and apparently they will have a Zoom meeting soon. The teachers aren't very technologically advanced so it is better than nothing for now. It's not a great situation, but I have kind of resigned myself to feeling it will be this way for at least the rest of the year.
The teachers are also not following the scientific evidence. From my understanding there has not been a single case where a child has transmitted the virus to an adult teacher in the ENTIRE WORLD. Kids are not as susceptible to this virus as adults according to the evidence. Nations are looking at what the USA is doing and blindly following suit. The USA is infected with another more potent virus at the moment named TDS. Basing public health policy on the American model is crazy. The democrats want to stop schools opening in order to maintain the chaos and make Trump look bad so they can win the 2020 election. I believe their strategy will fail but in the meantime kids in the USA and elsewhere are suffering. Pelosi and her crew of evil elites don't give a fck. I almost believe David Icke because I can see Pelosi peeling off her skin every night revealing the lizard within. She is some scary btch.
 
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tel522

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The teachers are also not following the scientific evidence. From my understanding there has not been a single case where a child has transmitted the virus to an adult teacher in the ENTIRE WORLD. Kids are not as susceptible to this virus as adults according to the evidence. Nations are looking at what the USA is doing and blindly following suit. The USA is infected with another more potent virus at the moment named TDS. Basing public health policy on the American model is crazy. The democrats want to stop schools opening in order to maintain the chaos and make Trump look bad so they can win the 2020 election. I believe their strategy will fail but in the meantime kids in the USA and elsewhere are suffering. Pelosi and her crew of evil elites don't give a fck. I almost believe David Icke because I can see Pelosi peeling off her skin every night revealing the lizard within. She is some scary btch.
What are you smoking ? or are you taking those chloroquin sweetys like herr trumpf .
 

Mark

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I'm a bit shocked that the average mortgage is A$467,700... I'd heard that Australia is experiencing a property bubble, but this is a pretty big number and if there are large scale defaults the banking sector will be in serious trouble.
 

Markit

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Sweden seems to represent the most civilized example for the world to follow at the moment - they had a high death rate initially due to not locking down (like UK initially wanted to do) but then the virus ragged through the senior homes. As it will in any country that has avoided it so far - it's only a matter of time.

I am of the opinion that lockdowns are the wrong approach. Everyone points to New Zealand and how successful their lockdown has proved. But it is only postponing the inevitable. Coronavirus will make its way there eventually and they will go through what every other community has gone through with this virus.

Any warning that consists of monetary concerns I discount out of hand - think way, way back to the 2008 financial world collapse where every country came up with a new acronym for "printing money" such as Quantitative Easing (QE). This was supposed to be the only chance as we (the banks really) teetered on the brink of disaster, because it would induce rampant inflation.

Anyone in the class know how much inflation the printing of 12 trillion dollars brought? No?

None, 0, zero, zip, nadda. So let the presses rip and give everyone a Guaranteed Income (GI - see Google) of $2000/month and I promise to do all I can to support the banks (not to forget brown girls and bars).

So far here in Bali Rona has only had positive affects - we here in the east have never had so much delivered, really good, food and produce. Vegetables are cheaper delivered than from the local markets, bread in all the sorts you'd only get in Europe and cheese (oh blessed cheese) is expensive but I just got 1,7kilos of French Emmenthaler for IDR300k! Just bought 2 kilos of the best clams you can get outside of Rhode Island for IDR20k/kg.

Def getting fatter and less hair but beer is still cold, small brown girls even warmer than before and apparently my wallet has lost none of its attraction.

Cheers and live like it's your last day.
 

harryopal

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May 5, 2016
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The mortgage rot in Australia really took hold from about 1986 with negative gearing allowing property investors to gain major tax concessions so that the upper middle class seized the opportunity to invest in multiple properties. This demand coupled with a lack of supply saw housing costs rocket. The dream perhaps for most young couples to have their own house has led many young people to buy into the market with their financial situations on a knife edge. Unfortunately for many, home ownership only became achievable if both husband and wife worked to have enough cash flow to maintain the hugely stressful mortgage payments. If one of them lost a job their situation became impossible. Now with the economic impact of the Corona virus tens of thousands of families are faced with losing their homes and facing economic and emotional disaster.

This of course is just one aspect of the ruinous impact of lock-downs. Not to say that governments have not been between a rock and a place. Not to have such lock-downs would open governments to allegations of neglect and lack of care about health issues. I suggest that any thoughts of economies quickly recovering is fatuous and wishful thinking. Even were there to be an effective vaccine available by next year this is unlikely to spare from us the calamitous, world wide financial wreckage from which it will take a decade or more to recover.

It behoves us all to make a serious stocktake of our circumstances to be ready for difficult times ahead. On the brighter side, most of us will live through the crisis with perhaps more modest aspirations to wealth and material benefits. As long as I can watch the Aussie rules football on TV and swim and walk along the beach.... I am ready.

Gird your loins and keep smiling.
 
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harryopal

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May 5, 2016
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......
Any warning that consists of monetary concerns I discount out of hand - think way, way back to the 2008 financial world collapse where every country came up with a new acronym for "printing money" such as Quantitative Easing (QE). This was supposed to be the only chance as we (the banks really) teetered on the brink of disaster, because it would induce rampant inflation.

Anyone in the class know how much inflation the printing of 12 trillion dollars brought? No?

None, 0, zero, zip, nadda. So let the presses rip and give everyone a Guaranteed Income (GI - see Google) of $2000/month and I promise to do all I can to support the banks (not to forget brown girls and bars).
.....

But then, on the other hand Zimbabwe tried to print it's way out of difficulty and finished with $500 trillion dollar bank notes which would not buy a loaf of bread. Perhaps the answer if 42...as in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy with computers grinding away for years to find the answer to the question, "What is the meaning of life?" And finally came up with the answer..... 42.
 

PERtoDPS

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The fresh food is what I miss most about Bali. Just not the same here in West Aus, the soil is sand and everything seems to come from factories coles and woolworths. There are some alternatives off the beaten path, but very expensive and just don't taste anywhere near as good.

The proper sized steaks are bonus but they'll run you $30 or so AUD these days.

The roads are far better here as is public transport but roads are ridden with speed traps etc.
 
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Markit

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The mortgage rot in Australia really took hold from about 1986 with negative gearing allowing property investors to gain major tax concessions so that the upper middle class seized the opportunity to invest in multiple properties. This demand coupled with a lack of supply saw housing costs rocket. The dream perhaps for most young couples to have their own house has led many young people to buy into the market with their financial situations on a knife edge. Unfortunately for many, home ownership only became achievable if both husband and wife worked to have enough cash flow to maintain the hugely stressful mortgage payments. If one of them lost a job their situation became impossible. Now with the economic impact of the Corona virus tens of thousands of families are faced with losing their homes and facing economic and emotional disaster.

I've always thought that the housing boom in Oz is one of the most convincing arguments for a conspiracy you could find anywhere. Nobody can convincingly explain to me how sixth largest country in the world with the smallest population density can have anything like a housing shortage.

Ok if nobody wants to build then that's one reason or you can't build because there's no building materials but THE MARKET controls all that with SUPPLY AND DEMAND, remember those?

I've seen Oz houses and, don't get me wrong, they're nice but not $500,000 nice - they're just build out of fecking wood and surprisingly that does grow on trees.

Friends moved to Mt. Morgan from Germany in the 80s and it was and still is a shit hole with no rain, no intelligent life, no culture, no good schools and lots of trailer trash living in 500 grand shanties. Go figure!
 

PERtoDPS

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I've always thought that the housing boom in Oz is one of the most convincing arguments for a conspiracy you could find anywhere. Nobody can convincingly explain to me how sixth largest country in the world with the smallest population density can have anything like a housing shortage.

Ok if nobody wants to build then that's one reason or you can't build because there's no building materials but THE MARKET controls all that with SUPPLY AND DEMAND, remember those?

I've seen Oz houses and, don't get me wrong, they're nice but not $500,000 nice - they're just build out of fecking wood and surprisingly that does grow on trees.

Friends moved to Mt. Morgan from Germany in the 80s and it was and still is a shit hole with no rain, no intelligent life, no culture, no good schools and lots of trailer trash living in 500 grand shanties. Go figure!

My old house that I'm still fighting my ex over the sale of in court now is valued at approx $500,000 it's a totally average brick house way out in a boring suburb that you need a car to have any type of life. No pool, small yard, main road behind it. She wanted new build I wanted some old Victorian thing in the city, she won. Where it's located it's 15 minute uber to the train ($20 ish), or you can bus it, but that's a major pain 10 mins to nearest bus stop. Then it's around 45 minutes from the train station in to the Perth CBD. This city spans for miles in all directions now, if it keeps going it'll become just hours of cities like California.

I came to realise relationships are good for around 5-7 years for most people, of course some can make them work longer but how happy are those past those years? I think 5 years ish is when we go back to being our true self and stop putting on any type of "show" or "polished version" of ourselves. Passing 2 year mark with Indo mrs, still happy days so far!

I will never ever buy a house on a 30 year payment plan with a girl again I tell you that! What stupid shit was I thinking?
 

harryopal

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May 5, 2016
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Tomorrow I will know what impact it will have to my job in Melbourne, work has not changed so far. My biggest problem is that my Kitap in due in October, was thinking of trying to get to Indonesia now.


So, what has been the impact on your job?
 

JackStraw

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My old house that I'm still fighting my ex over the sale of in court now is valued at approx $500,000 it's a totally average brick house way out in a boring suburb that you need a car to have any type of life. No pool, small yard, main road behind it. She wanted new build I wanted some old Victorian thing in the city, she won. Where it's located it's 15 minute uber to the train ($20 ish), or you can bus it, but that's a major pain 10 mins to nearest bus stop. Then it's around 45 minutes from the train station in to the Perth CBD. This city spans for miles in all directions now, if it keeps going it'll become just hours of cities like California.

I came to realise relationships are good for around 5-7 years for most people, of course some can make them work longer but how happy are those past those years? I think 5 years ish is when we go back to being our true self and stop putting on any type of "show" or "polished version" of ourselves. Passing 2 year mark with Indo mrs, still happy days so far!

I will never ever buy a house on a 30 year payment plan with a girl again I tell you that! What stupid shit was I thinking?


Hmmm, not sure about that one mate. I know plenty of people 10, 20, 30 years into their marriage and still happy as clams. This goes for both bule/lokal marriages and bule/bule marriages. Of course, I've heard my fair share of horror stories and experienced some of my own but that's not to say a long, happy relationship is not impossible. Just takes a lot of work on both ends.
 
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