As Melbourne goes into 4-stage lockdowns, Bali is opening up to domestic tourists. No one can really say which one is the right approach. There is always going to be a need to balance lockdowns which work but are not sustainable and having some kind of economy.
This is from the Eureka report:
Morgan Stanley’s analysts explained that 55% of respondents with a mortgage had received some form of income support from the Government in the past six months.
The other thing that stood out was that 15% of those receiving support are on JobSeeker, which is the dole.
Presumably they weren’t on the dole before the pandemic, since they have a mortgage, and you couldn’t service a mortgage on $40 a day, but they would be struggling now even though the coronavirus supplement has bumped up the amount to $557.85 per week. But a lot of them must be making the repayments since only 8% are on mortgage holidays from the bank.
That JobSeeker amount is due to go back to the old figure of $282.85 a week, or $40 a day, in January, after an intermediate step down in September to $407.85.
Those people, plus all the others relying on income support, will have to get a job by March next year or default on their mortgages. And it can’t be a couple of shifts a week making coffee or entering data from home, which would see them back in the “employed” column of the ABS labour force data.
There are 6 million mortgages in Australia; 55% of that number is 3.3 million. The average mortgage is $467,700.
Let’s assume, conservatively, that the mortgages of these people are below average – say, $300,000. And let’s also assume that three-quarters of them do get a decent job in time for the income support to run out.
That leaves 825,000 mortgagors going on the dole, which by then will be back to $282.85 a week and definitely not enough to meet mortgage repayments.
That number of mortgagors multiplied by $300,000 is $247.5 billion in loans. The total capital of the big four banks is $257 billion.
This is from the Eureka report:
Morgan Stanley’s analysts explained that 55% of respondents with a mortgage had received some form of income support from the Government in the past six months.
The other thing that stood out was that 15% of those receiving support are on JobSeeker, which is the dole.
Presumably they weren’t on the dole before the pandemic, since they have a mortgage, and you couldn’t service a mortgage on $40 a day, but they would be struggling now even though the coronavirus supplement has bumped up the amount to $557.85 per week. But a lot of them must be making the repayments since only 8% are on mortgage holidays from the bank.
That JobSeeker amount is due to go back to the old figure of $282.85 a week, or $40 a day, in January, after an intermediate step down in September to $407.85.
Those people, plus all the others relying on income support, will have to get a job by March next year or default on their mortgages. And it can’t be a couple of shifts a week making coffee or entering data from home, which would see them back in the “employed” column of the ABS labour force data.
There are 6 million mortgages in Australia; 55% of that number is 3.3 million. The average mortgage is $467,700.
Let’s assume, conservatively, that the mortgages of these people are below average – say, $300,000. And let’s also assume that three-quarters of them do get a decent job in time for the income support to run out.
That leaves 825,000 mortgagors going on the dole, which by then will be back to $282.85 a week and definitely not enough to meet mortgage repayments.
That number of mortgagors multiplied by $300,000 is $247.5 billion in loans. The total capital of the big four banks is $257 billion.