Markit
Any of you old timers remember when the dollar was this good before? Would be interested in what to expect as I'm obviously not stupid enough to think that a 11,000 IDR greenback will totally move only my world. Indo stock exchange has also fallen 21% this month so bear market here we come too. How does that Chinese curse go again? .... "you should live in interesting times!" The papers are also all reporting that the Indo cost of living has gone up 8% in one year also - without mentioning the petrol price increase at all, of course. Time to break out the bubbly or head for the bunkers? Bubbly in the bunkers also possible.
alex margou
Here's a graph. Still got a little way to go yet to reach November 2008:(Don't know why it's so small? Click on it to get a bigger version.)[ATTACH]1630.vB[/ATTACH]
Rangi
Here is the graph so people can see it (it is very simple to do this).http://102.imagebam.com/download/RdElecJQWb-u8rwOC-SOuA/27143/271425578/Bubbly.jpg[/IMG]
ronb
So, if you are looking at it to gauge the strength of the Rupiah (the graph is upside down), we see it was strongest in mid 2011 and has been weakening ever since. An attempt to explain what is going on can be found at [url=http://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/news-columns/weakening-rupiah-because-of-indonesias-fundamentals-and-profit-taking/item924]Weakening Rupiah because of Indonesia's Fundamentals and Profit Taking | Indonesia Investments[/url].If it continues to weaken, then inflation will raise it head, and we will all notice that.
ferdie
USD rate is 11.300 today, who ever needs to travel or pay with foreign currency, better be safe and keep some bills up till a few months aheadThere's a big possibility Indonesia will face another big economic problem
joji gulapetis
USD rate is 11.300 today, who ever needs to travel or pay with foreign currency, better be safe and keep some bills up till a few months aheadThere's a big possibility Indonesia will face another big economic problem[/QUOTE]It will just be "another" problem ferdie, nothing as big as 1998 or 2008. They say that one of the reasons the Rp. is falling against the US$ is because the US economy is improving. Well, if this is true, Indonesia's exports to the US should increase, and hopefully bring the Indonesian economy some well earned respite. It will also put a curb on imports, so helping the Indonesian trade deficit. But, we are all here for the long haul, and all those bule on dollar or Euro or pound sterling incomes will be as happy as the proverbial porker in a pile of crap. Bali will boom because the cost of holidays will fall as well.Indonesian rupiah based exports will increase because they will become cheaper in dollars. And, the price of nasi padang will stay the same...... :couple_inlove:So let the good times roll.:topsy_turvy:
matsaleh
Previously, I've noticed in Bali that every time the exchange rate goes through the roof, the locals just increase their prices to compensate. They know we're getting a great exchange rate, so there's really no saving at all.
Rangi
Previously, I've noticed in Bali that every time the exchange rate goes through the roof, the locals just increase their prices to compensate. They know we're getting a great exchange rate, so there's really no saving at all.[/QUOTE]And that when our veteran bargaining skills come into play. Most markets are so saturated here that it's easy to find someone desperate to make the sale.
JohnnyCool
That's very true.Still, it could be a good time to transfer some extra funds from our overseas' bank accounts (more Rupiah for us to splash around).Or not.:jaded:
mat
Not so good if you have money invested in international companies here in Indonesia, ie; sun life , prudential, value of deposits have crashed.
SHoggard
This could be the start of another Asian crisis, it's not limited to the IDR, but the Indian rupee, Mal ringgit (at a 15 year low against the Sg$), Thai Baht etc:[url=http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/08/22/Fed-minutes-put-pressure-on-Asian-currencies.aspx]Fed minutes put pressure on Asian currencies - Business News | The Star Online[/url]
Markit
Not so good if you have money invested in international companies here in Indonesia, ie; sun life , prudential, value of deposits have crashed.[/QUOTE]Please Mat tell me you aren't mad enough to both live here and invest money in the economy? Anyway Sun Life and Prudential aren't Indo companies so if you've bought an annuity in either of those it will be invested sensibly in Germany or if they really wanted to row the risk boat out, maybe America. But for sure not in Indo.
joji gulapetis
This could be the start of another Asian crisis, it's not limited to the IDR, but the Indian rupee, Mal ringgit (at a 15 year low against the Sg$), Thai Baht etc:[url=http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/08/22/Fed-minutes-put-pressure-on-Asian-currencies.aspx]Fed minutes put pressure on Asian currencies - Business News | The Star Online[/url][/QUOTE]Oh yea of little faith.The chinese word for crisis consists of 2 characters. one is the symbol for danger, the other, the symbol for opportunity. So, gentlemen, look at this as an opportunity, not as a danger. In 1998 when everyone was buying dollars like crazy, we took all our dollars and converted them to rupiah. The banks were being rushed with and everyone was withdrawing their rupiah and changing to dollars. We negotiated rates that would make the jewish moneylenders green with envy from the BCA and CITIBANK. (But the government shut down the Citibank loophole quite quickly, but not the BCA.) We doubled our money in 12 months, in rupiah. A (chinese) friend was leaving the country, and ended up sleeping in his 1 year old Daimler (at the aorport car park) that he bought for US$10 thousand cash at the airport from another chinese guy who was really freaked out. A year later the car was worth 7 times that amount. Interest rates will go up on deposits, so, and there will be bargains to be had elsewhere. And there will be those of little faith who will panic, selling out for peanuts.This is just another part of the business cycle. Grab a beer and watch it come around again.:topsy_turvy:
alex margou
.... jewish moneylenders ...[/QUOTE]???Do we still say that kind of thing in the 21st century?
joji gulapetis
???Do we still say that kind of thing in the 21st century?[/QUOTE]Why not? It is a fact, and a matter of history. Some of the greatest banking families in the world started their fortunes in that manner. My apologies to anyone who feels offended by this statement.:topsy_turvy:
ferdie
At least this problem is big enough for SBY to hold an emergency meeting and will address the public today to try to overcome it.For the expats who had the monthly USD or AUD or Euro income, it will be a wonderful period, but for those who do business here and make IDR income? Its gonna be a bumpy ride:icon_e_smile:IMHO, When you ask your citizen to do extra consumption all the time, at some point it will bite you in the back.The over consumption of petrol is not only because of illegal activities but also driven by the government push to increase consumption until they started to running wild and cannot be handled anymore.
mat
Please Mat tell me you aren't mad enough to both live here and invest money in the economy? Anyway Sun Life and Prudential aren't Indo companies so if you've bought an annuity in either of those it will be invested sensibly in Germany or if they really wanted to row the risk boat out, maybe America. But for sure not in Indo.[/QUOTE]True but if the investment is in Rupea, and invested in a hard currency country. the value drops. less units per Rupea.
Markit
An interesting addendum to the original post - maybe things won't be quite so rosy for us foreigners after all? [url=http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21584032-rise-economic-nationalism-compounds-broader-worries-about-south-east-asias-giant-slipping]Indonesia?s economy: Slipping | The Economist[/url]
gilbert de jong
today I wanted to buy a new car and a new bikey....at both places they didn't wanted to sell...
matsaleh
today I wanted to buy a new car and a new bikey....at both places they didn't wanted to sell...[/QUOTE]Hoping the exchange rate will be better next week or the week after? Tell them not to hold their breath.
