Markit wrote
Would love to know what the rest of you think but I live in a village (Jasri by Amlapura) and although the locals have taken note that tourism will be changing I think they've finally taken to heart that the last 4 years have been hellish (volcano, earthquake, pandemic, war) and that tourism as a business model going forward may not be solution to a gilded future for them and their kids. What does this mean? Well unfortunately here it's causing a drainage of the youth to foreign shores - I know personally of parents that have paid a fortune for their kids to go to Miami, Poland and Turkey. Possibly never to be seen again. Family sizes, as all over the world, are dropping like a rock - my friends came from families of 9 and 8 brothers and sisters each and they then had 3 and their kids are basically not interested.
When I look deep into my crystal ball I see fewer and fewer locals involved in an active way with tourism (will replacements come from Java/Sumbawa/Lombok?) oh, they'll still own them but not work there. The number one tourist source for Bali is Oz and they're running out of young people to feed the holiday mill (birth rate for Oz women 1,58 - replacement is 2.02) so I suspect Bali will lean more and more towards catering to the wants of the ones that do come. This will mean the end of youthful "fun" like discos, party places, surfing, etc. and more and more things for older people to do tied with care and healthcare. You can already see it in the move to declare Bali an international health stand.
I see Bali as a cheap and cheerful Ozzy old folks home and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that (says he @ 67 ;) )
I spent from November 2020 until February 2021 in Denpasar, I'd only intended to be there a third of that time, but then Delta hit and you know the rest no flights to my city, lockdowns and all that and it was cheap enough to stay on in Bali. Upon arrival to Sydney this is the shift I definitely noticed, I can't help but think the long lockdowns in both Victoria and New South Wales are at least a part to blame for this consciousness:
People are still very much in "stay home stay safe" mode, while there is some eating out many more are still cooking at home. People don't mind to be home in their room all day and fairly anti-social, it's especially noticeable obviously coming from Bali and it's relatively laid back carefree lifestyle.
International travel is resuming out of Sydney now and most other cities, even Perth unlocked the other day, however travel seems to be the last thing on the mind of the masses, I don't know if this will slowly shift back or not, but everyone I interact with as about as localised as you could possibly get. My flight out of Jakarta to Sydney was 95% Indonesians, a friend took a flight to Melbourne and said the same.
People are working for lowish wages here in a lot of cases and cost of living is higher than ever, so I think holiday is one of the first things to go.
Maybe my outlook is just a little on the pessimistic side, but to me still looks a fair way off what the Australia/Bali relationship used to be.
As far people having less children that's good, the housing conditions here are already very crammed and there is clearly more people than resources.
