Covid-19 cases surge in Bali

JackStraw

I also thought this was the appropriate thread to post this article that just came out recently: https://elemental.medium.com/the-most-likely-way-youll-get-infected-with-covid-19-30430384e5a5 I found this part to be especially interesting: "In one study from China, for example, an infected person had a 17.2% chance of spreading the virus to a family member who lived with them, but just a 2.6% chance of giving it to someone outside the home."

Juggler

JackStraw wrote Come on over, grab yourself a cold bintang and enjoy the empty beaches while they last. (don't forget to wear a mask though

Ummm do you drink the Bintang through a straw?

JackStraw

Tezza71 wrote I take your point JackStraw. Those graphs are pretty clear. It wouls certainly appear that death rate is down. I wonder if it's because the more vulnerable are being more careful about there movements. Or, and I hope I'm out of order here, maybe the more vulnerable are no longer with us.

Yeah I'm not sure what the reasoning is but it's clear this disease is just not as deadly as we originally thought. Yet, we continue to post the daily cases everywhere on the news. It's a disease and people will get it. If we put the daily cases of the common cold, flu, daily heart attacks, tuberculosis, etc, then I'm sure it would panic people as well. We need to focus on deaths. Not cases in my ever so humble opinion.

PERtoDPS

It's not getting the indo visa that's the problem, the Australian border is locked and you need special permission to breach it during the lockdown. Someone I'm unsure if they want to be named or not from here has been mentoring me a great deal and I'm very thankful, think I'll be on the way there by December. It is possible to apply for exemptions https://travel-exemptions.homeaffairs.gov.au/tep and it appears to be free to apply. It also costs $3000 to come back in to Australia (pay your own hotel quarantine) but to be honest I'm hoping this dulls down in to home quarantine in the six months I intend to stay, still paying $3000 to be in a hotel jail isn't ideal. Bars are neither here or there, probably pop in to one or two but the trip is about re uniting with my Mrs and continuing my life I've spend 3 years building in Bali. Just as happy drinking take home beer from the warung.

Tezza71

Right Gents, I need some advice from you guys on the ground in Bali. I am really keen on trying to get over there to spend some time with my lady who I haven`t seen, apart from WhatsApp calls, since early March. I'm 73 and that puts me in the bracket for a possible bad reaction to this damn virus. What i would like to know from you guys is just how dangerous do you consider the situation to be. I'm not interested in visiting bars or night spots just being there with my lady. I have a house in Jimbaran which I am leasing so that is where i would be staying. Let me have your thoughts guys please.

JackStraw

Tezza71 wrote Right Gents, I need some advice from you guys on the ground in Bali. I am really keen on trying to get over there to spend some time with my lady who I haven`t seen, apart from WhatsApp calls, since early March. I'm 73 and that puts me in the bracket for a possible bad reaction to this damn virus. What i would like to know from you guys is just how dangerous do you consider the situation to be. I'm not interested in visiting bars or night spots just being there with my lady. I have a house in Jimbaran which I am leasing so that is where i would be staying. Let me have your thoughts guys please.

Well take a look inwards first. If you were truly scared of this virus and if it was as bad as everyone says it is, would you risk flying in a plane right now? Yet, here you are contemplating it. Things are completely fine here in my opinion. Just stay away from crowded places indoors. Make sure to get plenty of exercise outside, eat your vitamins and practice good hygiene and everything will be swell. I have heard crime rates going up a bit in South Bali. To be honest, that's much more of a concern than the China Virus.

Tezza71

JackStraw wrote Well take a look inwards first. If you were truly scared of this virus and if it was as bad as everyone says it is, would you risk flying in a plane right now? Yet, here you are contemplating it. Things are completely fine here in my opinion. Just stay away from crowded places indoors. Make sure to get plenty of exercise outside, eat your vitamins and practice good hygiene and everything will be swell. I have heard crime rates going up a bit in South Bali. To be honest, that's much more of a concern than the China Virus.

Thanks for the blunt opinion JackStraw. Yes you are right regarding being in a plane. If I could get on a boat I would or some other form of transport that wasn't so crowded I would. However, having said that, swimming is not on, walking is even less of a proposition so it really doesn't leave much in the way of options unless you have access to a time machine.

mugwump

Tezza71 wrote Right Gents, I need some advice from you guys on the ground in Bali. I am really keen on trying to get over there to spend some time with my lady who I haven`t seen, apart from WhatsApp calls, since early March. I'm 73 and that puts me in the bracket for a possible bad reaction to this damn virus. What i would like to know from you guys is just how dangerous do you consider the situation to be. I'm not interested in visiting bars or night spots just being there with my lady. I have a house in Jimbaran which I am leasing so that is where i would be staying. Let me have your thoughts guys please. [/QUOTE Equating to your generation influences my opinion, and that is if you have underlying health problems the healthcare available in Bali won't compare to what is available in Australia, so you lack that backup. If you are able to keep a low profile here with very limited outside contacts it may be ok. My opinion in lieu of much valid information for the public available is that the increasing cases stem from the fact that the young people working in the south Bali area who now are jobless have gone home to their parents creating large households and a poor health environment where this virus can thrive. Most of us expats can avoid that situation, and are in a position where crowded conditions are less likely. I have even limited my super market trips to those with less business. Hope this helps!

PERtoDPS

Tezza71 wrote Right Gents, I need some advice from you guys on the ground in Bali. I am really keen on trying to get over there to spend some time with my lady who I haven`t seen, apart from WhatsApp calls, since early March. I'm 73 and that puts me in the bracket for a possible bad reaction to this damn virus. What i would like to know from you guys is just how dangerous do you consider the situation to be. I'm not interested in visiting bars or night spots just being there with my lady. I have a house in Jimbaran which I am leasing so that is where i would be staying. Let me have your thoughts guys please.

I'd be going at the first possible opportunity, go and sort out anything that Medicare covers before you go from here. I assume you are in a state of health that doesn't require constant Dr visits? This is only worth it if you're going for a long time, the flights aren't as cheap as they used to be and you'd have to enter via Jakarta and then make your way to Bali (at time of writing this). The fact that Australia is still charging $3000 for hotel quarantine for the foreseeable future also means that it's not really worth hopping over for a month or two. I am going to look to get back over myself before Christmas, think I've figured out the process, PM me if you need to know anything. Given your age can you perhaps look at going 1 way and transferring a pension if you have one? I've you're leaving the country for good pretty sure you'd get around the travel ban. Good luck mate! I feel for you!

Juggler

Tezza71 wrote Well PERtoDPS I attempted to get a travel exemption and was summarily knocked back. No explanation just a resounding NO. I can tell you it rocked me back on my heels. I thought I had put forward a very valid case but it made no difference. Shit it pees me off that I can't get back to my lady and no telling how long it's likely ot be either. If you try I wish you all the luck in the world mate.

Hi Tezza can I ask what case you put to the Oz gov to support your case? We were planning of applying for a late NOv departure and I was advised to tell them that you are intending on leaving for a min of 6 months. thx

PERtoDPS

Tezza sorry to hear that! I read they have loosened the regulations for relationships a lot so also fairly curious as to how much info you uploaded to the portal as supporting documents. Obviously it may well be confidential and you don't want to share which is ok too. I will report back how I go, still got rent paid for October in Aus so earliest I'd look to apply would be for November arrival.

Fred2

I am going to Apply this week for departure 16/12 from Melbourne(not open yet), We will buy one way tickets. Will let you know if it works.

Juggler

harryopal wrote Evidently there are such unreliable reporting methods that it is difficult to really understand what is happening. We can reasonably suppose that the excitement generated by Covid has led to a more consistent level of reporting related deaths whereas in other years it may be that influenza deaths were not reliably tallied as there would not be the same intense focus as with our present "pandemic."

yes like Dan using people with underlying terminal medical issues but also contracting covid and being classed as a covid death. People dying FROM covid or people dying WITH covid... Its hard to get any truth out of the goverment

Foamcrest

Or are we just washing our hands and cleaning surfaces more often plus masks and social distancing. Bingo

Tezza71

Almost a second lockdown? https://coconuts.co/bali/news/bali-to-restore-stronger-restrictions-following-surge-in-covid-19-cases/ I'm really in 2 minds weather to try and get back or wait a few months? Personally not a fan of locking/closing everything but it seems when domestic borders opened over there infections did rise, or am I mistaken? Force my way through a travel exemption or just sit back and wait a few more months when I haven't seen my Mrs since March? Must be people who this has impacted even worse than me? Feeling a little trapped in Western Australia.

Well PERtoDPS I attempted to get a travel exemption and was summarily knocked back. No explanation just a resounding NO. I can tell you it rocked me back on my heels. I thought I had put forward a very valid case but it made no difference. Shit it pees me off that I can't get back to my lady and no telling how long it's likely ot be either. If you try I wish you all the luck in the world mate.

Tezza71

PERtoDPS wrote I'd be going at the first possible opportunity, go and sort out anything that Medicare covers before you go from here. I assume you are in a state of health that doesn't require constant Dr visits? This is only worth it if you're going for a long time, the flights aren't as cheap as they used to be and you'd have to enter via Jakarta and then make your way to Bali (at time of writing this). The fact that Australia is still charging $3000 for hotel quarantine for the foreseeable future also means that it's not really worth hopping over for a month or two. I am going to look to get back over myself before Christmas, think I've figured out the process, PM me if you need to know anything. Given your age can you perhaps look at going 1 way and transferring a pension if you have one? I've you're leaving the country for good pretty sure you'd get around the travel ban. Good luck mate! I feel for you!

harryopal

Tezza71 wrote Well PERtoDPS I attempted to get a travel exemption and was summarily knocked back. No explanation just a resounding NO. I can tell you it rocked me back on my heels. I thought I had put forward a very valid case but it made no difference. Shit it pees me off that I can't get back to my lady and no telling how long it's likely ot be either. If you try I wish you all the luck in the world mate.

I still don't understand the logic of banning people from leaving Australia. Is it that we have taken some kind of noble stand to protect other countries in case any departing Australians might be carriers? If the concern were that having departed they might return bringing Covid back with them then I would have thought that the compulsory and costly quarantining on entering Australia would of itself inhibit people from recklessly travelling. And the knowledge that the volatile nature of Covid might find us locked down or quarantined upon arrival at a new destination is obviously further going to diminish the travel urge. I gather that in the absence of constitutional rights the Australian government was able to introduce this remarkable ruling preventing it's citizens from leaving the country. But I am surprised at the meek acquiescence of our politicians in letting this just slide by. Despite all the talk about adjusting to a "new normal" it could be some years before things settle down.

PERtoDPS

harryopal wrote I still don't understand the logic of banning people from leaving Australia. Is it that we have taken some kind of noble stand to protect other countries in case any departing Australians might be carriers? If the concern were that having departed they might return bringing Covid back with them then I would have thought that the compulsory and costly quarantining on entering Australia would of itself inhibit people from recklessly travelling. And the knowledge that the volatile nature of Covid might find us locked down or quarantined upon arrival at a new destination is obviously further going to diminish the travel urge. I gather that in the absence of constitutional rights the Australian government was able to introduce this remarkable ruling preventing it's citizens from leaving the country. But I am surprised at the meek acquiescence of our politicians in letting this just slide by. Despite all the talk about adjusting to a "new normal" it could be some years before things settle down.

My personal belief is it's also to do with keeping money in the Australian Economy not it sliding offshore. In March people were basically encouraged to go on welfare (which was temporarily increased) and people could draw down $10,000 of superannuation on each side of the financial year. I strongly suspect they wanted this revenue left back in the pubs, casinos and what was still open and didn't want it going offshore. I can only speak for Perth but there is much more traffic on the roads now with the closed border and shopping malls are almost always full at least in the areas I go to and I suspect a lot of those people used to be overseas. It's a dire situation. There are huge promos for domestic tourism which is kind of crazy considering I can't even cross state borders right now. Officially the travel ban ends December 17 2020, but I am told not to be surprised if it's extended.

PERtoDPS

Tezza71 wrote Well PERtoDPS I attempted to get a travel exemption and was summarily knocked back. No explanation just a resounding NO. I can tell you it rocked me back on my heels. I thought I had put forward a very valid case but it made no difference. Shit it pees me off that I can't get back to my lady and no telling how long it's likely ot be either. If you try I wish you all the luck in the world mate.

Sorry to hear you got knocked back. Still not quite ready to apply I'll keep you posted if it works out for me. Not sure how long ago you applied, but apparently you can now upload new evidence of why you should travel, eg relationship show text messages pics etc I'd imagine, they do go pretty far and want basically defacto status and shared bank account records etc, which is kinda stupid I don't have any reason to share a bank account. I also read they have gotten a lot more lenient on exemptions, but yeah the statistic was only 1/3 are being granted right now.

harryopal

Back to the "surge" of Covid. The WHO says at present we have had just under 1 million fatal cases of Covid worldwide. In 2017 it was estimated that worldwide some 646,000 die each year from influenza. So we wonder is it 1 million Covid cases plus X number of cases caused by other influenza strains that are seasonal? Or is it that deaths from non Covid cases are lumped together? Evidently there are such unreliable reporting methods that it is difficult to really understand what is happening. We can reasonably suppose that the excitement generated by Covid has led to a more consistent level of reporting related deaths whereas in other years it may be that influenza deaths were not reliably tallied as there would not be the same intense focus as with our present "pandemic." It is apparent that Covid 19 can be deadly and with serious ongoing impacts on internal organs with those lucky enough to survive an attack. In the short term we seem to be running around like headless chooks in a great state of confusion. It seems there is now research to suggest that germ contamination on surfaces is not really as dangerous as we had earlier been told and that had led to the enthusiasm for spraying. Whatever, now would be a good time to be selling fully furnished caves in isolated places. Meanwhile, take care, stay well and only panic a little bit.

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