Lockdowns in developing countries

Juggler

I honestly think that more people will commit suicide due to financial issues and other external pressures than covid19 would take if no extrem measures where put into place

spicyayam

There was an article in the JP about a possible lockdown. One of the comments basically said the person would die of starvation before getting the virus if Jakarta was locked down. For people who scrape enough money to eat day by day, I wonder if it is possible at all to have a lockdown in a developing country like Indonesia or India. I have seen some crazy FB videos coming out of India, from mass chaos to people being beaten with sticks. It seems easier in western countries to implement tough measures, where many people will get some financial assistance and totalitarian societies like China where people have no real choice but to comply, but I can't see the same thing happening here. [ATTACH type="full" alt="3349"]3349[/ATTACH]

Markit

I'm actually beginning to doubt the various prognoses for this virus that we are all in fear for our lives of. Firstly how can anyone/country say how virulent a virus or anything is unless they've tested most of their people and discovered how many A) infected there are total, B) how many sick there have been total, C) how many have died specifically from that virus alone - not multiple other illnesses - just that virus. With out knowing A, B and C no one can say how bad this is or will be let alone compare it to, say seasonal flu or tuberculosis or measles - all of which are reportedly much more deadly than corona. But the world doesn't come to a halt because of those diseases does it? https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532/amp

JohnnyCool

Without reliable "testing" that actually [B][I]works[/I][/B], we still won't know how many symptom-free carriers ("vectors") are out and about. We still don't know.

JackStraw

Jokowi will never do full lockdown in Indonesia. That' suicide. Best he will do is allow each region to control #DiRumahAja measures the best they can.

matsaleh

.... https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532/amp

Thanks Markit. That made interesting reading, however, I am now interested to look up some of the original articles from where the quotes were taken. Like everyone else who has a barrow to push, the Global Research article has cherry-picked comments from each of the medical experts and not included the full articles by those experts, so we can't be sure of what was actually said, when taken in context.

spicyayam

This is another perspective questioning the numbers from Italy. I do think we are doing the right thing now. It is certainly an unprecedented move and people will be talking and studying it for decades. Along with the various conspiracy theories. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM9aZflBoOU

JohnnyCool

[ATTACH type="full" alt="3352"]3352[/ATTACH] [B]OR:[/B] [ATTACH type="full" alt="3353"]3353[/ATTACH]

JohnnyCool

Pictures vs words

JackStraw

JohnnyCool wrote Pictures vs words

You're losing your mind bro. Take a breather

JohnnyCool

JackStraw wrote You're losing your mind bro. Take a breather

Look. I had the pictures ready but trying to post them here wouldn't work until I made a "comment". That "comment" became a new "post" (without the pictures). Managed to get them up later as part of the original thread. And that's it. [B][I]"Take a breather"? [/I][/B]Where should I take it to? BTW - you got some spare ventilators handy? I don't need to be worried about any virus because my anti-virus computer software will protect me. Right? [I]Some[/I] people actually believe that. On the other hand, [I]maybe[/I] we're all "F[B]*[/B]". Lastly, can I borrow some of [I]your[/I] "mind bro"?

JohnnyCool

Thanks Markit. That made interesting reading, however, I am now interested to look up some of the original articles from where the quotes were taken. Like everyone else who has a barrow to push, the Global Research article has cherry-picked comments from each of the medical experts and not included the full articles by those experts, so we can't be sure of what was actually said, when taken in context.

I had similar thoughts myself. Who or what can be believed? Who's pushing which barrel to where? I hope Agent Orange in the USA doesn't read that. Just imagine his field day then (when he's not cheating at golf or "working")? Probably won't (doesn't read much anyway). What for? Terrifically, incredible, super stable geniuses, with stratospheric IQ's, don't need stupid things like "books". Sorry to ramble. Off topic: Heard of ADD (Attention Deficit Disorder)? How about ASD (Attention Surplus Disorder)? I might have both. I was going to respond to Markit's post directly but you've saved me from that. I thank you. Here's a link to a different take on Global Research's. From National Geographic. I know, not exactly renowned for scientific research, interesting (and no pictures of scantily clad native girls in far away places). (Nat Geo has removed its paywall for this.) https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/as-coronavirus-surges-how-hospitals-are-treating-covid-disease/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200327&rid=29C756A46E872D1530D3085BD58F97E2 A parting note: I'm sure that many of us have been amazed by extraordinary nature documentaries from David Attenborough. You know. All about sex and violence in Nature all around the planet. We should be careful about what we think/believe we know (less than 100%), and leave room for some healthy skepticism (90%). I hope we all get through this pandemic eventually. And that there are not too many pieces to pick up and put back together afterwards (if there are any). Best wishes to you, yours and everybody else trying to deal with an invisible enemy (on steroids). :)

Markit

I'm of the old school "be nice to everyone but keep your powder dry" so my skepticism is directed, as equally as I can, in all directions, both pro - mainstream and contra as I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. And it does give us all something to do and think about so we don't beat our wives/children/pets/random passers by to death out of shear boredom.

Juggler

I think sir humphery of yes minister summed it up best...... you can get any answer you want depending on how you ask the question

JackStraw

JohnnyCool wrote Look. I had the pictures ready but trying to post them here wouldn't work until I made a "comment". That "comment" became a new "post" (without the pictures). Managed to get them up later as part of the original thread. And that's it. [B][I]"Take a breather"? [/I][/B]Where should I take it to? BTW - you got some spare ventilators handy? I don't need to be worried about any virus because my anti-virus computer software will protect me. Right? [I]Some[/I] people actually believe that. On the other hand, [I]maybe[/I] we're all "F[B]*[/B]". Lastly, can I borrow some of [I]your[/I] "mind bro"?

not sure what kind of Bintangs you're on mate but I'd sure like to sample a few right now

JohnnyCool

<QUOTE author="spicyayam"><s>[quote=spicyayam]</s> This is another perspective questioning the numbers from Italy. I do think we are doing the right thing now. It is certainly an unprecedented move and people will be talking and studying it for decades. Along with the various conspiracy theories. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM9aZflBoOU <e>[/quote]</e></QUOTE> Much of what Corbett says in that video is worth thinking about, (with a healthy dose of skepticism thrown in). He [I]might[/I] be a victim of his [I]own[/I] rhetoric, (for whatever reason). I've always been unhappy when people talk about [I]averages[/I]. (Statistics can lie and distort "reality".) Here's a simple example: Five people have different salaries: 10,20,30,50,200 (thousand dollars). To get the [I]average[/I], count them all (310), and divide by how many salaries are there (5). The "answer" is 62, (more than all those below 200). Doesn't look realistic to me. Another statistical form of "magic" is the [I]median[/I], the midpoint of a string of numbers. Up above, that's "easy" because there are 5. The [I]median[/I] is the middle number there (30), which is plainly more "realistic" than an average of 62. Hang on. What if there are only [B]four[/B] numbers? There is a scary-looking formula to do that (but you don't wanna know). There are also online calculators that do the dirty work for you. Take the first four numbers (10,20,30,50): the median is 25. Take the ones from 20 to 200 (20,30,50,200): the median is 40. Note that the "average" here (62) is much higher than the "medians". So which one represents a [I][B]true[/B][/I][B] [/B]picture? Sorry if I've bored you ("self-isolation" has its downsides). ;)

Markit

An interesting, not to say worrying, statistical breakdown of the corona world situation without all the media hype and built in terror of death factor. I've done most of the maths and they do check out, particularly the US stats were forecast back end of March and are now almost spot on, but feel free to amend any errors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnXzGB170GI

Balifrog

Remember , the world is a dangerous place. Till now nobody ever survived it..... So, keep cool, relax and Inshallah.

SamD

Balifrog wrote Remember , the world is a dangerous place. Till now nobody ever survived it..... So, keep cool, relax and Inshallah.

And "inshallah" what exactly? Usually you might say something like "see you next year inshallah." If that is your thing. But inshallah as a statement on its own doesn't make any sense. Sorry. Being a pedantic tosspot but being stuck at home does that to you.

JohnnyCool

Markit wrote An interesting, not to say worrying, statistical breakdown of the corona world situation without all the media hype and built in terror of death factor. I've done most of the maths and they do check out, particularly the US stats were forecast back end of March and are now almost spot on, but feel free to amend any errors.

All "life" is "born" to "die". The probability of something alive dying is 100%. Some [I]could[/I] die quicker than others, but they'll still die. About that video. Yes, there [B][I]are[/I][/B] "errors" in that person's portrayal of "death rates" from various causes. [I]For example:[/I] With COV-19 in the cross hairs, [B][I]one[/I][/B] "death" is only one number. It takes about 20 days for someone to have caught it and die. The dead person got it [I]weeks[/I] before. Where did the deceased get it from [I]then[/I], and are [I]they[/I] still spreading it around? A reported number like "10 known dead" means the dead copped it well before. One dead [I]could[/I] mean 1,000 others are carriers without symptoms. Might be 2,000/death. And how accurate, reliable, valid is the "data" these numbers come from, from where, based on what? Nobody knows for sure. So [I]Markit[/I]. I have no idea what 'maths' [I]you've[/I] "mostly" 'done' to 'verify' "the numbers" that makes you conclude "[I]...are now almost spot on..[/I]." Did you use super advanced calculus magic? Heard of the Riemann Hypothesis? (There's still a million dollar prize to solve it.) Rather than trying to make sense of statistics, modelling predictions, etc, about this pandemic, accept that there [B]is[/B] definitely something [I]very bad[/I] going on. No country is 'immune', (some worse than others). Multiple 'epicenters' are springing up all over the world. Indonesia will be one, too. And then we have the spectre of "waves". First, second, third waves... By all means, stay calm, collected, careful and aware. If you go the cherry picking way, buy your own cherries or grow your own. :)