Thread: Property Crash Affecting Bali Too???

For all us Wannbe Expats does anybody have any information on what changes may be happening on the ground, so to speak, on the island's property market? With the property markets in free fall in most of England, US, Germany, Spain - hell, pretty much the rest of the world it would be interesting to hear from anybody that has some further information but is not involved in the "industry". (except Bert, of course - grovel, grovel)

Frankly speaking the "information" that one gets from most media sources about housing is badly tainted by self interest and is therefore very difficult to use to reach a valid opinion. Estate agents will tell you a house is a great buy while kicking the termites into the bottomless hole in the floor.

I've found that anecdotal information is the best source in this particular case so please let us have it :)

Cannot speak for Spain Markit,

but who told you that the property market in Germany is free falling?

Thorsten, my comments were not mainly pointing out Germany as such. But since Germany didn't enjoy the increases in property values that most of the rest of us have in the last decade any losses represent far more loss of real value than we are experiencing. If you've gained 300% in value in the last 15 years then a loss now of "only" 13 - 15% doesn't seem too harsh but if your house hasn't gained in that same time when all your neighbors have you may be forgiven for whining a little now :(

According to an article I have read somewhere they have since fallen back from admittedly quite a high level only about 3%, which isn't anything compared to the rest of us.

Unfortunately the only "statistics" I could find were these, sadly only from June/July showing about a 2% loss:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real ... /G#Germany

Roy I'll have to look for Bert's anecdotal evidence - during my time in the "the woods" I haven't really been following the forum.

Some more on German house prices for Thorsten - losses last year about 4.4% and this year around 2.5%:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/se ... tworkfront

Thanks Bali Life - some of the main things that are driving prices down in the developed countries is purely and simply that prospective buyers aren't in the market (not having jobs, money or both) and some are simply waiting for the market to hit bottom or are so insecure that they want to hoard what little cash they may have for coming hard times.

The prognosis that I tend to believe in says that bottom is still a long way off and with the events of last week in the US and Europe I think that point has been pushed still further off when from "recovery" can be spoken.

I would also suspect that the prices of construction will follow the same supply/demand laws as here - at the moment the trains and planes are full of Polish, Estonian, Hungarian electrician, bricklayers and plumbers headed home.

Now what does all that mean for the market in Bali?

II would guess, and that is all it is, that the two markets must be interlinked but with a delay. So look for a major dip any time towards New Year as all those Bule that want 2nd homes or are spending big bonuses will simply drop out of the market as they have here.

Anybody have other ideas?