Bali Expat Forum - Bali Travel Forum

What about the millions you have to pay to get into the army?

I try to get my father in law to work. Maybe he found something at a fuel station, but even there he will have to pay to get the job.

jogry blok wrote:What about the millions you have to pay to get into the army?

yeah, but that's just self serving stuff. By charging kids to go to school you ruin their future, and that of the nation. They can wave all the red and white flags they like but if you are a teacher or a headmaster doing that you are a hypocrite

In my opinion of course.

here's an interesting read.. these are the guys that control the largest, most profitable companies in indo; in some regard, hats off to them:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/80/06i ... _Rank.html

ct

Well I found out something quite encouraging today - my husband told me that for the last couple of years kids in 1st through to 6th grade get free education in Lombok - and we assume the whole of Indonesia. They still need to find money for uniforms, books, shoes etc - but the school fee is free.
He's of the opinion that teachers corruptly taking money to accept kids into the school doesn't happen that often. More often though, the family needs to make an 'extra' donation to get kids in past a quota. It happened for my step-daughter where he had to pay for some extra school equipment (desk, etc) to fit her in past the quota of kids funded by the govt. But that money really would have gone to the school, not into someone's pocket.

Unfortunately bribery is an integral part of Indonesian economy. I don't make this statement lightly. However, without bribery most population can not survive their daily life for long. So, now when I get caught up in the situation, I give it up sincerely. Of course, I'll bargain for it first.

On another subject, the US market today is standing on the edge of the abyss. SP500 closed @1406 well below it 200dma. Read the sobering market wrap commentary from last Tuesday (and Monday if you're interested in the real losses among giant banks).

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

/hh

hi balibaba,

bit of a doom & gloom article, but certainly an interesting read.. the global economy is seen as very strong and earnings haven't suffered terribly as a result of these woes.. most banks are (citi & bac) included are reporting record earnings... i personally think this is a good buying opportunity for bank stocks... and buffet just disclosed picking up half a billion worth of bank of america stock.. i'd be followin his lead..

i think this whole thing is a little bit (ok a lot) overdrawn.. but only time will tell..

ct

these guys are one of the oldest, most respected market reporters in the industry... the organization doesn't carry market positions and has the most accurate record with it's forecast system among it's peirs.. endorsed by buffet (u can tell i'm a buffet fan).. this was their write-up this morning..

http://valueline.com/news/marketnews_070815.aspx

they also have a forecast for the dow overall..

http://valueline.com/pdf/valueline_2006.pdf

i used to be a subscriber, but let it go as i'm not active enough to justify $1000 US+ per/yr for the subscription..

ct

this deleveraging was overdue and far from over. Next to go is the carry trade. The times of cheap credit are over.

Regarding the health of the world economy, one can only speculate. We've had too good for too long. It's about time reality and value reassert themselves.

I'll start looking at stocks when there is pain in the streets, sometime in september.

For the time being, stay in cash and try to go long yen in an efficient way.

See you downhill.

perspective from citi in email rec'd today (though from last week), they're stickin to it for now:

Dear Valued Customer
RE: Market Commentary
A number of issues weighed on the equity markets Thursday (July 26, 2007), sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJII) down 311.50 points (-2.26%) and the S&P 500 Index down 35.43 points, for a 2.33% loss on Thursday. The technology
laden Nasdaq Composite dropped 48.83 points, or 1.84%. In the view of Citigroup Analysts, continued concerns about the
credit and mortgage markets, further deterioration in the housing market, and rising oil prices appeared to be the major
drivers of markets’ broad-based sell-off. Market breadth was decidedly negative today, with the number of declining issues
outpacing the number of advancing issues by more than 15-to-one on the New York Stock Exchange. Thursday’s (July 26,
2007) market decline marks the 29th 100 point move in the Dow thus far this year, fast approaching the total for 2006 of
33. The “VIX Index,” a commonly used measure of volatility, registered its highest reading since June of 2006. Treasury
markets, in a “flight-to-quality,” rallied on the same day driving the yield on the 10-year Treasury note below 4.8%.
Credit market fears continued to trouble investors today, in Citigroup Analysts’ opinion. It appears the main source of concern
is that increased risk aversion and more restrictive credit markets could have a dampening effect on M&A activity, making
deals tougher to pull off. Two large leveraged buy-outs (LBOs) were put on hold on Wednesday (July 25, 2007), and there is
concern that there will be fewer future deals due to financing difficulty, in our view. New home sales were lower than expected
in June, falling 6.6% versus consensus expectations for a 2.7% decline. Weaker-than-expected second quarter earnings
from a number of homebuilders further supported the view that any significant recovery in the housing market may be
forestalled. Crude oil prices continued to rise on Thursday (July 26, 2007), reaching just shy of $77 per barrel. In the view
of Citigroup Analysts, recent uneasiness over a slowdown in consumer spending was magnified, given the negative housing
data and higher crude prices.
Although credit concerns, the housing market, and a potential consumer slowdown are all risks that investors should not
ignore, we believe the market will ultimately be supported by a number of factors, including solid corporate balance sheets,
relatively attractive market valuations, strong free cash flow generation, rising income levels, low unemployment, and
moderating inflation. Although we expect markets to remain choppy, we believe the potential exists for further gains in the
equity market by the end of the year and into 2008. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 1,600 and our year-end target
for the Dow is 14,400. The S&P 500 currently trades at approximately 15.7x our 2007 and 14.6x our 2008 S&P 500 operating
earnings (pre-writeoffs) forecasts of $94.75 and $101.75, respectively. Our mid-year 2008 targets for the S&P 500 and Dow
Jones Industrial Average are 1,725 and 15,500, respectively. This implies approximately 14% upside from current levels over
the next 12 months.
Yours sincerely
Andrew Chia
Managing Director
Investment & Treasury Services
International Personal Bank

Citi and other brokers are obviously biased towards making sure everything is fine. Well, they participated in creating the conditions that result in today's troubles. Reckoning times are upon us.

Just look around you, how many people live beyond their means?

How many live on borrowed time, how many rely on credit to fund their livestyle?

Check out the yen... carry trades have started unwinding....

Just read the quoted article in Economist (http://www.economist.com/daily/news/dis ... id=9640652):
"...Closed industries include public health, culture and the environment..."
These are exactly the sectors where Indonesia would need the largest foreign investment and transfer of knowledge...

Yeh yeh yeh.. Not convinced sorry guys.. Sure, I thinlk there'll be elevated vollatility thru to september, but the fundamentals are as follows..

1. Strong global earnings, even among those at most risk (a contained risk) from this, the financial sector.. These guys are the ones taking the losses and they're still reporting 33% gains in net earnings

2. Valuations aren't high, sure they're higher than they were in 2002 after the tech crash, but the S&P is at like 20 - 22x earnings.. Not bubble material.. Some asian markets are overvalued, but anyone with common sense knows which are and which aren't.. European markets are very healthy..

Again, I think a correction is healthy, but the US housing market woes are not significant enough to implode the global economy.. Send some shockwaves, yes, and moderate the markets a bit, for sure..

Anyhow, I'm in vegas this weekend, and yeh, I see a lotta people here are livin beyond their means.. But hey, it's vegas.. I on the other hand am not a gambling man (I find its a temptation I need avoid, coz when I start, it can get messy), and I'm trying to eat sensibly..

Ct

What is this? Did Rupert Murdoch, after acquiring the Wall Street Journal, also bought the Bali Expat Forums?

Yes tin.. I agree, just slightly off topic.. Apologies for subjectin all to this unrelated ramble..

Ct

Wow Alex, there you go again - you are depressing! I wonder why some people (including my favorite big brother) are constantly expecting the sky to fall. I susspect a breeze thru any psych 101 book would provide some clues...anyway pro/con pos/neg react/proact...it's up to the individual.

'Pain in the streets', eh? Hope you keep those vibes in the UK!