Bali Expat Forum - Bali Travel Forum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007-2008_ ... ice_crisis

See Indonesia.

I don't mean to give a doom and gloom scenario but please read the above link on the situation that's happening globally. In Italy, the election is over and we're looking forward to the new Government. Hope they will bring positive changes soon. Alitalia is for sale but Berlusconi is trying to salvage it from the grip of AirFrance-KLM that offers less power to Italy and the airline's management. High unemployment, uncontrollable inflation, low salaries, high crimes are the topics in the news everyday. People spend less today. Many shops closed down. In my street, (right in the centre of Milan), 5 shops have closed including a mini-market. How's Bali doing? Is it true what is printed on the article above?

I just asked Dewi, and the price of rice has more than doubled....

There is a definite down trend in the global economic markets. Prices are rising, businesses are struggling & closing, energy prices are on the rise.

Here in Hawaii, on the island of Molokai, the largest individual land holder shut down all operations three weeks ago, closing two resorts, a cattle ranch, small shopping village and laying off all employees with vitually no notice. One of our longest operating airlines, Aloha Airlines (51 years) shut down all passenger operations last week, again with virtually no notice and laying off 1900 employees. ATA, another mainland discount airline serving Hawaii and bringing in tens of thousands of visitors to the islands daily also closed last week. Mainland airline Pioneer Air filed for bankruptcy last week.

The island's construction boom of the last several years has virtually ceased and again, construction workers are being layed off. Fuel prices on Maui reached the nation's highest peak, topping over $4usd.gal . Hawaii is particuarly vulnerable to this global adjustment being the most isolated island chain in the world (3000 miles from any major land mass) and completely dependent upon oil for energy production, completely dependent upon tourism and airline traffic to fuel it's economy, completely dependent upon ocean and air transportation for food supplies and consumer goods.

Things are gonna get a little scary everywhere for the next 6 months to a year at least. Bali has seen increasing prices in all sectors from food costs to fuel shortages. One advantage Bali still has is a large domestic tourism base to pull from within the country to help prop up it's tourism sectors. For tourists, Bali still represents a goood value for the money and it's close proximity to Australia will continue draw visitors from that part of the world. Bali has also excelled, either by design or by accident, in developing new visitor markets as has been seen in recent years with an influx of visitors from Korea, other parts of Asia, Russia, South America, etc. The falling US Dollar means that countries with smaller economies have more purchasing power abroad these days. Canada, for example, is seeing and great increase in the value of their dollar.

I don't think doomsday is just around the corner, but a major global correction is definitely in the works. People are feeling the economic uncertainty and are becomming increasingly judicious in their spending habits. Unchecked consumerism is on the wane. Credit markets are far tighter than they have been in recent years and the pending elections in the US seem to have people alll over the world hunkering down as they wait for the outcome and it's effect on worldwide money markets.

Great post Tony!

If tourist numbers so far this year are indicative of what the whole calendar year will be like, then Bali will be enjoying all time record numbers of tourist arrivals.

Bali has another advantage, particularly in the area of food availability. That advantage is that many Balinese grow food products to one extent or another, as well as keeping pigs, chickens, ducks and sometimes even cattle. In reality, Bali is most likely in a better position overall than most of the places mentioned in the Wikipedia article quoted by Milan.

Roy wrote:That advantage is that many Balinese grow food products to one extent or another, as well as keeping pigs, chickens, ducks and sometimes even cattle.

I don't think this will help in the longer run. See also the message from Bert about the rice on Bali. If the farmers are getting better prices exporting it, instead of selling on the local market, the locals also will suffer. This is what is happening in many countries already. They are exporting food while their own people are starving.

Reuters, April 15, 2008:

“Indonesia is not a big rice exporter, shipping just 50,000 tonnes of organic rice last year”

People’s Daily On-line, April 15, 2008:

The Indonesian government decided Tuesday to allow local rice producers and state logistics agency Bulog to sell to the export markets.

The export permit, based on the trade minister's decree dated April 11, is conditional according to the domestic rice supplies, Trade Minister Mari Elka Pengestu said in a press conference at her office.

Rice exporters must first get approval from the trade minister based on recommendation from a government team, the minister said.

"The export license is issued when the government is certain that the country enjoys a rice surplus."

"When rice stocks exceeds 3 million tons, equivalent to the national rice consumption for a month, we consider this as safe and we have surpluses for export sales," she said.

According to a government report, national rice production is expected to increase by some 6 percent to 35 million tons in 2008 from last year's 33 million tons.

As an aside, in many areas of Bali, it is right now beras harvest time, and the current crop looks very good, making the government prediction of a 6 % increase (minimum in Bali) looking like a potentially conservative estimate.

Aside from rice Rien, the Balinese grow a whole host of other staple food products.